MANIFOLD
Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ50
2027
31%
chance

Resolves YES if Almonty Industries or Sangdong mine reports that its tungsten production accounts for more than 20% of the global tungsten supply excluding China as of April 1, 2027. Resolution will use official production figures published by Almonty Industries in their quarterly or annual reports or verified industry supply data such as USGS or equivalent authoritative sources. Given Sangdong's commercial production started in early 2026 and targets a significant share of non-Chinese supply, this threshold tests whether it achieves a material market share that could reduce reliance on Chinese tungsten. The market excludes Chinese production from the denominator to focus on Sangdong's impact on alternative supply. Partial or unverified production estimates do not count; only audited or officially confirmed production figures will resolve the market.

The capacity of Sangdong to significantly alter the non-Chinese tungsten supply landscape is critical for market balance.

Source: Article

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