MANIFOLD
Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ50
2027
31%
chance

Resolves YES if Sangdong mine's reported tungsten output accounts for more than 20% of the total global tungsten mine production excluding China on April 1, 2027. Resolution will use official production data published by Almonty Industries or industry-verified sources such as USGS or trade reports. Given Sangdong's commercial production start in January 2026 and its strategic target to supply a significant share of non-Chinese tungsten amid China's export restrictions, this threshold reflects a pivotal shift in global supply balance. Only primary mine production counts; recycled tungsten or downstream processing volumes are excluded. The market evaluates production share exactly on April 1, 2027, not cumulative or annualized figures.

The capacity of Sangdong to significantly alter the non-Chinese tungsten supply landscape is critical for market balance.

Source: Article

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