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MANIFOLD
Penis at FIFA 2026 World Cup?
48
αΉ€1.5kαΉ€12k
Jul 20
96%
Nice bulge / outline
61%
Dildo in stands
60%
YES PENIS πŸ˜ƒ
58%
Floppy
56%
In the stands?
55%
Non-player
55%
Straight shape
54%
During match
54%
With ball(s)
53%
2 or more
53%
White
51%
Cut
51%
American
49%
In USA
49%
Dildo on field
48%
Uncut
48%
Shaved pubes
45%
European
43%
Average
43%
Full nudity

Will we see it?

On the field, during tv or the postings on social media sources.

I will see it and we will discuss the resolutions for it here first.

  • Update 2026-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Dildos are now a separate option and do not count toward penis resolution β€” only real, non-AI penises count

    • 'Nice bulge / outline' is a standalone option, judged subjectively by the creator; does not count as a penis sighting

    • Social media sources include Bluesky, Telegram, Reddit, Twitter, and similar platforms

    • '2 or more' means over the full market duration, not simultaneously

    • All options (e.g. spotted, ginormous, twisty, straightened) are independent and resolve as a checklist

    • Evidence must be a confirmed non-AI image; unverified or AI-generated content will not count

  • Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If no penis is seen, all other penis-related options (e.g. big penis, spotted, etc.) resolve NO, not N/A

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Games gone if no man can drop the trousers to letting the bladder snake slithering. These nations are too soft! Maybe Dana White should be being the FIFA president because the Infatino cannot handle the basics of the good World Cup necessities. Where is is the penis?

I am bringing out the monocle, doing the energized searching for such figures to emerge. 3 matches are done and none of the trouser wowzers is peeking out of it? It is not a good season for it yet? Have faith for the optimistic people we are making it out yet. The USA is the nation doing ding dong donks!

bought αΉ€10 YES

All Day I Dream About Schlong

ahahahah, excellent use of Manifold

@bens Kalshi, Polymarket, Draft Kings, Big Tony. None of them would ever be doing it like this! They are not having the BALLS for it like the Manifold has. @SirSalty walking around with the big sack swinging like the BIG BOSS HOSS site cofounder. It is perfection here and the accepting of us that makes it best world community of the big thinkers. Thank you for your attention to my TED talk like it matters!

Da fuk?

@HansKoch You have none of understanding of the real world kiddo.

1 week to go, I’m not sure I’m ready for this. Go Team USA!

@UniversalFC Filthy behavior if you are thinking Team USA is winning it here.

Dawg who is making these questions

@Blocksterpen3 This is historic potential penis amount and someone needs to be tracking it, keeping the notes for future civilization. Please let us take a peek at it together, with the collaborating we are making the accurate reports.

bought αΉ€30 YES

fucking hilarious market. S tier

@No_uh It is the serious business, let’s all getting the binoculars to seeing it. What is the message? Pinch and zoom it in there. Swing-a-ling-a-ding-dong! Picking up the banana phone. It’s for you. Free the Tibet it is saying, taking the stand!

@TheAllMemeingEye hmm. On a hunch put up a search for bts porn meaning. Most relevant result Better Than Sex

@TheAllMemeingEye Any member of the K-pop band during the final halftime show πŸ’•

opened a αΉ€50 YES at 2% order

@CryptoNeoLiberalist messi's penis gets an awesome number of results

Errr... some very important clarifications:

  • Are these options asking for absolute probabilities (so all should be less than 1-'NO PENIS') or conditional probabilities (so can be any percentage but resolve n/a if 'NO PENIS')?

  • Is this including dildos thrown by the crowds, or just actual penises?

  • Given that 'Nice bulge / outline' is an option, does that mean any even slightly visible bulge at all (likely somewhat visible on >10% of men) would affect all the options, or is that a consolation prize falling under 'NO PENIS' and the other options are only affected by directly visible penises (likely visible on <0.1% of men)?

  • How would you have resolved this for the 2018 and 2022 world cups? Microsoft Copilot AI and web search didn't immediately yield any examples of high profile streakers at them, but I'm not sure if you're thinking of more obscure cases, perhaps only momentarily visible flashers in the background crowds?

  • Which specific social media sources are you counting?

  • Does '2 or more' mean simultaneously or over the whole market duration?

  • Are these options asking for absolute probabilities (so all should be less than 1-'NO PENIS') or conditional probabilities (so can be any percentage but resolve n/a if 'NO PENIS')?

    It is all independent of each other, please let us not worry about it, except for the NO PENIS / YES PENIS. There is the penis or there isn't the penis.

  • Is this including dildos thrown by the crowds, or just actual penises?

    It is the real life fleshy good stuff, not AI slop like @SteveSokolowski is watching on the vr headset with the elon musk fuck robots. Adding the option for the dildo, thank you for it.

  • Given that 'Nice bulge / outline' is an option, does that mean any even slightly visible bulge at all (likely somewhat visible on >10% of men) would affect all the options, or is that a consolation prize falling under 'NO PENIS' and the other options are only affected by directly visible penises (likely visible on <0.1% of men)?

    It is the own standalone thing and we are looking for the nice bulge with the outline. It must be nice so a real man like the @Stralor takes a look at it and says yes, this is the nice one and I salute it with my flippy floppy. It is at the discretion, but most likely it will resolve yes. Is there a many cups here in this sporting?

  • How would you have resolved this for the 2018 and 2022 world cups? Microsoft Copilot AI and web search didn't immediately yield any examples of high profile streakers at them, but I'm not sure if you're thinking of more obscure cases, perhaps only momentarily visible flashers in the background crowds?

    I don't know anything about it, but with the influx of the HBO shows with the penis as the costarring role, it is time for the penis to getting a flashlight. You show me the confirmed non-AI image of the penis in the crowd, at the stadium, on the pitch and I will analyze the result. You don't show me, I don't see it, then we have the problem, everything is the no.

  • Which specific social media sources are you counting?

    Anything that is the reasonable authority! Bluesky, telegram, reddit, twister, you name it, I buying it!

  • Does '2 or more' mean simultaneously or over the whole market duration?

Over the full market durations.

If there is more than one of it, and one is ginormous, one is spotted, one is twisty and the other is straightened, all resolve yes. It is the checklist, we wait until we are seeing it all!!!

@CryptoNeoLiberalist thanks, surprisingly good clarifications for most of the questions despite needing a double take to understand some sentences lol

The only one I'm still not clear on is question 1, I know it's an independent market (multiple can resolve yes e.g. big penis and floppy), but is it absolute (if no penis then big penis resolves no) or conditional (if no penis then big penis resolves n/a)?

@TheAllMemeingEye Someone must be taking good care of the penii! In this country we cannot being afraid for any longer! No n/a, it is the no in the scenariusz you are telling me. If no penis then the big penis is resolving the no.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist thanks for clarifying πŸ‘

Btw, if it's not too personal to ask, what is your first language? I'm not sure if the writing style is intentional or an accidental artifact of having English as a second language πŸ˜…

@TheAllMemeingEye I am trilingual but I am the American first and the foremost of it all!

Seems like a non-player, european-american(?) with a big, white, uncut penis is planning on attending a match in America and getting on the field during the match for a jaunt with their flacid penis out.

Are prediction markets better than Palantir at predicting future crimes? πŸ˜‚