UK Electricity price to be negative 1hr+ a day for 20 of the next 30 days
12
127
230
resolved Jan 25
Resolved
NO

Price will be tracked using the 'Price per MWh' graph at https://grid.iamkate.com/ An example of a negative price for 1hr+ is shown below (it's for 2022 12 29).

starting 2022 12 29, closing on 2023 01 28.

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predicted NO

Day 26? No negative block. Closing.

predicted NO

Day 25?? (It's Vietnamese new year, I'm in the wrong time zone and stretching) no negative block. 12 days with negative blocks, three unknown, 6 remaining. It remains, faintly, possible.

predicted NO

Day 22 no negative block 12 days with confirmed negative blocks. 1 potential I have not looked up to confirm yet

predicted NO

Day 21 no negative block ( a cold front has brought freezing temperatures) . 12 days with negative blocks so far. This market may close early.

predicted YES

@CromlynGames the unknown day did have a negative block to the best of my knowledge

predicted YES

Day 20 no negative block. 12 days with negative blocks so far i

predicted YES

Day 19 no negative block. 12 days with negative blocks so far, 1 unknown

predicted YES

Did I miss a day?

Day 18? - negative block. 12 days with negative blocks so far. 1 unknown

https://manifold.markets/CromlynGames/uk-grid-average-carbon-intensity-be

predicted YES
predicted YES

Day 16 - one negative point, but it's a single point so does not strictly cover the entire hour required for the resolution. 11 days with negative blocks so far

predicted YES
predicted YES
predicted YES

Day 15 - two negative blocks (just, I had to really zoom in to check. One at 0130, one at 0430, barely negative)

11 days with negative blocks so far

predicted YES

Day 14 - negative block. 10 days with negative blocks so far.

I'll be traveling for the next 24hrs, so if anyone wants to post it tomorrow, that's appreciated

predicted YES

Day 13 -it hit zero, but not negative. 9 days with negative blocks so far

predicted YES
predicted YES

Day 12 - no negative block. 9 days with negative blocks so far

predicted YES

Day 11 - 9 days with negative blocks so far. Interestingly, since the emissions are pretty constant, it suggests demand dropping away rather than a sudden short wind hitting the windfarms

predicted YES

Day 10. Negative between 2am and 4am (just with price at (-13) eight days with negative blocks so far. It's looking slightly more likely?

predicted YES

Day 9. Negative between 4:30 and 6am, so just squeaks in. Seven days with negative blocks so far:

predicted YES

day 8, no negative block. Six days with negtive blocks so far:

predicted NO

@CromlynGames I'm on the edge of my seat

predicted YES

@CromlynGames didn't paste the graph this morning. It's in the records, but meh:

predicted YES
predicted YES
predicted YES