A different market that I made was about CBN sleep products and the federal hemp definition on November 12, 2026: https://manifold.markets/CraigTalbert/will-hempderived-cbn-sleep-products
That market also used data about sales and enforcement. This market uses federal law and the rules below.
The short version
Federal law has two tests for a cannabinoid in a hemp product.
Test 1 is about the molecule. Can a cannabis plant make this cannabinoid? Test 1 started on November 12, 2026. I think that CBN passes Test 1. CBN occurs in cannabis material when THC oxidizes.
Test 2 is about the CBN in the bottle. Did the CBN occur in the plant, or did a person make it outside the plant? Test 2 starts on December 11, 2026.
This market is about lab-made CBN. In this market, "lab-made CBN" is CBN that a person made outside the plant. This includes CBN that a person made from CBD. It also includes CBN that a person made from THC after the removal of the THC from the plant. Lab-made CBN fails Test 2.
Here is an example. Oranges make vitamin C. A factory can also make vitamin C for a tablet. Test 1 is, "Do oranges make vitamin C?" Test 2 is, "Did an orange make the vitamin C in this tablet?" For that tablet, the result is yes for Test 1 and no for Test 2.
Test 2 did not start on November 12. The law contains Test 2 at this time. It is not necessary for an agency to make a decision before Test 2 starts on December 11. The market resolves YES only if both Part A and Part B below are correct.
Background
Congress changed the federal definition of hemp in November 2025 (Public Law 119-37, division B, section 781). In September 2026, Congress moved most of the change from November 12 to December 11 (Public Law 119-103, section 2019): https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-119publ103/html/PLAW-119publ103.htm
The Montana Cannabis Control Division says that manufacturers usually make hemp-derived CBN distillate and isolate from CBD by chemical conversion: https://revenue.mt.gov/files/Cannabis/Cannabinol-Synthetic-or-Naturally-Derived.pdf
CBN has one more risk. On December 11, a limit of 0.4 mg for each container starts. A final product with more than the limit is not hemp. The limit counts total THC, which includes THCA. The limit also counts other cannabinoids that HHS puts in a similar-effects group.
HHS decides which cannabinoids are in this group. The group is for cannabinoids that have effects similar to THC on humans or animals. It is also for cannabinoids that are marketed as having such effects. CRS reported that FDA had not published the lists as of October 28, 2026: https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/LSB11496.html
"Test 1" and "Test 2" are names that I use. The law does not use them. For Test 1, the law has "not capable of being naturally produced". For Test 2, the law has "synthesized or manufactured outside the plant". For final products, the two tests are in 7 U.S.C. 1639o(1)(C)(iv)(I) and (II) after the change. Clause (III) contains the 0.4 mg limit.
What is a "CBN sleep product"
A CBN sleep product is a gummy, tincture, or capsule for consumers. Companies sell it as hemp. It does not come from a state-licensed marijuana program.
Its primary active cannabinoid is lab-made CBN. Each container has more than 0.4 mg of CBN. Each container has a maximum of 0.4 mg of total THC. If the 0.4 mg limit is in force, the product meets it without counting CBN. The product obeys all other federal hemp rules.
Resolution criteria
The resolution time is 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on December 11, 2026. I will use federal law as it is at the resolution time. I will resolve the market on December 12 or after that date.
The market resolves YES only if Part A and Part B are correct at the resolution time.
Part A is correct if one of these three items applies:
A federal law is in force. The law cancels or changes Test 2, or moves Test 2 to a subsequent date. As a result, Test 2 does not apply to lab-made CBN on December 11. An exemption counts if it applies to the product defined above.
FDA, HHS, USDA, or DEA published a final rule or final guidance. The document must tell you directly that lab-made CBN, or the product, is hemp. The document must be available to all persons and in force at the resolution time. A document that is only about enforcement is not sufficient. Agency guidance does not change the law. I use it here as a market rule.
A federal court order is in force in all of the United States. The order directly stops or cancels Test 2 for lab-made CBN. An order that only stops enforcement is not sufficient.
Part B is correct if the 0.4 mg limit does not remove the product from hemp. The limit removes the product only if the limit is in force and HHS made a decision that CBN is in the similar-effects group. The decision must name CBN, or a group that clearly includes CBN. If the decision has conditions, I will apply them as written. An FDA list from section 781 with CBN in that group is an HHS decision for this market. The list must be available to all persons and in force at the resolution time.
The market resolves NO if Part A or Part B is incorrect.
Clarifications
This market is about the law and the market rules above. It is not about enforcement. If no item in Part A applies, the market resolves NO. The market resolves NO although companies continue to sell CBN products and no agency stops them.
If no new law changes the date, I will use December 11 as the start of Test 2.
A law, rule, guidance document, or court order that starts after the resolution time does not count. It does not count although it applies to dates before the resolution time.
If government funding stops, the hemp definition does not change.
CBN that was in the plant material before its removal from the plant is not in this market. I do not tell you here if that CBN is hemp.
CBN that a person made from THC after the removal of the THC from the plant is lab-made CBN in this market. This includes CBN that a person made from that THC with heat and air. This is a market definition. It is not a decision about the law.
State law and products in state-licensed dispensaries do not count.
If the facts are not clear, I will read the federal law and the federal documents that are in force at the resolution time. I will resolve the market in good faith.
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