Resolution criteria

Kratom remains legal at the federal level in the United States, though this market resolves YES if kratom (Mitragyna speciosa) or its primary active compounds (mitragynine and 7-hydroxymitragynine) are placed into Schedule I, II, III, IV, or V of the Controlled Substances Act by December 31, 2029. Resolution will be determined by official DEA scheduling action published in the Federal Register. The market resolves NO if kratom remains unscheduled at the federal level through the end of 2029.

Background

The DEA attempted to temporarily reclassify kratom as a Schedule I controlled substance in 2016 but faced unprecedented public pushback, ultimately withdrawing the proposal. In July 2025, the FDA announced that, because of public health concerns, they were recommending to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) that the 7-OH compound—not the kratom plant—should be scheduled as a Schedule I controlled substance. While the DEA hasn't moved to ban kratom at the federal level, state lawmakers are increasingly concerned about public safety, with kratom fully illegal in seven states as of October 2025.

Considerations

The 2016 DEA scheduling attempt faced organized opposition including a "March for Kratom" at the White House and a petition with more than 145,000 signatures to President Obama. However, the political and scientific landscape has shifted: the FDA's 2025 recommendation specifically targets 7-OH (a concentrated derivative) rather than kratom itself, citing its "dangerous" pharmacological profile and "emerging patterns of non-medical use". This distinction between regulating the plant versus its synthetic derivatives may affect the likelihood and scope of federal action.