In November 2025, Congress passed – and the President signed – a government funding package (including the Agriculture–FDA bill) used to end the federal shutdown. That law includes a provision that redefines “hemp” under federal law in a way that is expected to wipe out most intoxicating hemp-derived THC products sold outside state-licensed marijuana systems, such as delta-8 gummies, THCa “hemp” flower, vapes, and many THC seltzers.

These new hemp limits do not directly affect state-licensed marijuana dispensaries, which remain governed by state cannabis law; they mainly target hemp-branded products sold in general retail and online.

The new statute does two key things for consumer hemp products intended for humans or animals:

• It narrows the hemp definition so “intermediate” hemp-derived products can’t contain synthesized/chemically converted cannabinoids and can’t exceed 0.3% total THC (counting delta-9, THCa, and similar intoxicating cannabinoids).

• It bans “final” hemp products that either contain synthesized cannabinoids or have more than about 0.4 mg total THC/THCa (and similar cannabinoids) per finished consumer container, which industry groups argue would criminalize most of today’s intoxicating hemp ingestibles and many “full-spectrum” CBD items.

The hemp changes take effect roughly one year after enactment, but they could be narrowed, repealed, or blocked (in whole or in part) by later legislation or federal court decisions.

This market is about whether that kind of federal hemp crackdown is actually in force by the end of 2026.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by end of day December 31, 2026 (U.S. Eastern time), all of the following are true:

1. The federal hemp definition in force on Dec 31, 2026 is materially similar to the new shutdown/funding law language, in that it:

   • Treats as illegal “hemp” products most intoxicating hemp-derived THC items (e.g., delta-8, THCa, high-THC hemp drinks/gummies) by imposing a strict combined THC/THCa (and similar cannabinoids) cap (around 0.3% by content and/or ~0.4 mg per container); and

   • Applies nationwide, regardless of individual state hemp rules.

2. Those federal restrictions have actually taken effect and are not fully stayed by a nationwide injunction as of Dec 31, 2026. (Partial, state-specific, or narrow injunctions don’t matter; what matters is whether a federal hemp-THC ban of this type is legally operative somewhere in the U.S., not whether enforcement is perfect.)

This market resolves NO if, by Dec 31, 2026, any of the following is true:

• Congress has repealed or substantially amended the hemp section so that most intoxicating hemp-THC products are once again clearly legal as “hemp” under federal law; or

• Federal courts have issued nationwide relief (e.g., a permanent injunction) that fully blocks enforcement of the core hemp-THC ban provisions; or

• Only much narrower federal rules remain, such as age restrictions, labeling, or safety standards, while most intoxicating hemp-THC products still qualify as lawful “hemp” under federal law.

If there is serious ambiguity (for example, conflicting lower-court rulings or unclear agency guidance), the I will resolve based on the best good-faith reading of the U.S. Code, the enacted public law, and major federal court decisions as of Dec 31,

2026.