Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?

500Ṁ921

2099

19%

chance

ALL

This market is about the extinction risk of the Polar Bear species in the current century. This market will resolve YES if the Polar Bear is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_bear

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22823/14871490

For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market concerns complete extinction - the death of the last individual polar bear, whether wild or captive. This is distinct from extinction in the wild only.

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@ConservationForecasts Is this strictly EXTINCT (as in the very last polar bear dies)? or extinct in the wild (natural habitat)?

@EstMtz This market here concerns complete extinction: the death of the last individual, wild or captive. I have another market concerning wild extinction (the dealth of the last wild individual), see the link in the description.