Will the wild population of the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct by 2100?

Question

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the Polar Bear, a species that was classified as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List in 2015. It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier. It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct. The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the Polar Bear persists.

For more information about the species, see:

IUCN assessment

Wikipedia

For comparison, here the market about full extinction risk, including captive individuals:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-polar-bear-ursus-maritimus?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (7 traders, as of Nov 21, 2025).