Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?
Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?
14
162Ṁ3052099
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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This market is about the extinction risk of the American Black Bear species in the current century, regardless of subspecies. The market will resolve YES if the American Black Bear is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_black_bear
IUCN red list of threatened species
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/41687/114251609
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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