Will the Baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) become Extinct by 2100?

500Ṁ6729

2099

99%

chance

ALL

The Baiji, also known as the Chinese River Dolphin, is a species of freshwater dolphin native to the Yangtze River system in China. It is currently listed as Critically Endangered (possibly extinct) on the IUCN Red List. For more information about the Baiji, see:

This market addresses the question of whether the Baiji will become extinct by 2100 or earlier. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual of the species.

The market will resolve YES if and when the Baiji is officially listed as Extinct by the IUCN, including at any time earlier than 2100.

The market will resolve NO if the IUCN listing in the year 2100 makes it clear that the Baiji is still extant. This includes any listing as Least Concern, Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, or Extinct in the Wild. A listing as Critically Endangered qualifies for a NO resolution, but only if it is not accompanied by the subcategory (possibly extinct). A listing as Data Deficient qualifies for a NO resolution if the justification text makes it clear that the Baiji is still extant.

If the IUCN listing in 2100 leaves doubt about whether the Baiji is extinct or not, the resolution will be determined based on the best available evidence, following a discussion in the comments. This might include the following cases: a listing as Critically Endangered (possibly extinct), a listing as Data Deficient with a justification text that leaves doubts about its survival, consistent failure of the IUCN to update its assessments, the ceasing of the IUCN's existence.

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Your wording of the question is messed up. Your resolving says "is" extinct in 2100 but the title says "becomes extinct sometime before 2100"

I fully expect most things that have gone extinct recently to be come de-extinct, especially before 2100. So which is it? Extinct at all before 2100 or still extinct at 2100?

Thank for your feedback. I have updated the description for clarification, and added the IUCN categorization as criterion. The market will resolve YES, if the Baiji is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier. And NO if it has not been declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100. I hope this makes clear, what this market is about.