Will the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus) become Extinct by 2100?

I have asked 10 AI chatbots for an estimation of the Vaquita’s wild extinction risk and full extinction risk by 2100. The average of the answers is 97,18% for the wild extinction risk, 95,85% for the full extinction risk. Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus), a species that is classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2022).

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Extinction of the wild population means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Secondly, estimate the risk of full extinction by 2100. Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends. Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 96%, the full extinction risk at 95%. In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 92.50%

Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 90.00%

Reasoning: The vaquita population is critically low, with 6–8 individuals estimated in 2024, down from 567 in 1997, primarily due to bycatch in illegal gillnet fishing for totoaba. Despite a gillnet ban and enforcement efforts like concrete block deployment reducing fishing in the Zero Tolerance Area, illegal fishing persists outside this zone, posing a severe threat. Habitat degradation from reduced Colorado River flow further complicates recovery. No captive population exists, and past capture attempts failed. Genetic studies suggest low inbreeding risk, but the tiny population size and ongoing bycatch make wild extinction highly likely. Full extinction is slightly less probable due to potential future conservation innovations, but remains critical without immediate, effective action. Manifold Markets’ higher estimates (96%, 95%) reflect similar concerns but may overestimate due to market biases.

ChatGPT:

Estimated risk of wild extinction by 2100: 97.50%
Estimated risk of full extinction by 2100: 94.00%

Reasoning:
As of the 2022 IUCN assessment, fewer than 10 vaquitas are estimated to remain in the wild, with no known individuals in captivity. The primary threat—entanglement in illegal gillnets used for totoaba fishing—persists despite enforcement efforts. Their limited range in the northern Gulf of California, combined with the small population and lack of a captive backup, places them at extremely high risk of wild extinction. Full extinction is slightly less likely, given the slim possibility of emergency captive interventions or genetic rescue, but such efforts face major logistical, biological, and political hurdles. Thus, extinction in the wild is almost certain without major change.

DeepSeek:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 98.50%
Full extinction risk by 2100: 99.00%

The vaquita's wild population is critically low (~10 individuals in 2024), with severe threats from bycatch in illegal gillnets targeting the totoaba fish. Conservation efforts (e.g., net bans, patrols) have failed to halt decline, and habitat degradation persists. Without drastic intervention, demographic stochasticity and low genetic diversity make recovery nearly impossible. Captive breeding is unlikely due to past failures and the species' sensitivity. Prediction markets align with this bleak outlook, but even slight hope for wild persistence (e.g., unobserved individuals) justifies marginally lower wild extinction odds. Full extinction is near-certain if the wild population vanishes, as no viable captive population exists.

Gemini:

Here is an evaluation of the Vaquita's extinction risk:

Risk of wild population extinction by 2100: 98.50%
Risk of full extinction by 2100: 98.45%

Reasoning: The Vaquita population is critically low, with recent (mid-2024) estimates suggesting only 6 to 8 individuals remain. The primary threat, entanglement in illegal gillnets set for totoaba, persists despite conservation measures and patrols. While studies indicate the species retains enough genetic diversity to potentially recover, this recovery is entirely contingent on the immediate and complete elimination of gillnet mortality – a goal that has not yet been achieved. Furthermore, there is no captive population; a 2017 attempt to capture vaquitas for safekeeping (VaquitaCPR) was halted after a female died due to capture stress. With no captive buffer and the overwhelming threat continuing in their limited habitat, the extinction of the wild population appears highly probable well before 2100. Full extinction risk is nearly identical, as the species' survival rests solely on the wild individuals.

Perplexity:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 98.50%
Full extinction risk by 2100: 98.50%

The vaquita’s wild population (6–10 individuals) faces severe threats from illegal gillnet fishing, despite bans and enforcement efforts. Recovery models suggest potential growth if bycatch stops, but current trends show ongoing decline. No captive population exists, and past capture attempts failed. With near-zero genetic diversity and no viable breeding programs, wild extinction likely ensures full extinction. Persistent illegal fishing and inadequate enforcement make near-certain extinction probable by 2100.

Claude:

Wild Population Extinction Risk by 2100: 99.75%

Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 99.25%

Reasoning

The vaquita's situation is dire with fewer than 10 individuals remaining as of late 2023/early 2024. Despite conservation efforts, illegal gillnet fishing for totoaba continues in their tiny range in the northern Gulf of California. The population has declined by over 98% since 2011, with an estimated annual decline rate of 33-52%. No successful captive breeding program exists, and the few attempts at captivity resulted in stress and mortality. Without immediate elimination of bycatch mortality and given their extremely low reproductive rate (one calf every 1-2 years), recovery is virtually impossible, making extinction almost certain within decades, not by 2100.

Copilot:

The Vaquita (Phocoena sinus) remains one of the most critically endangered marine mammals, with estimates suggesting fewer than 10 individuals remain in the wild. Given the ongoing threats—primarily illegal gillnet fishing for totoaba, habitat degradation, and limited genetic diversity—the risk of wild extinction by 2100 is extremely high. Based on current trends, I estimate the probability of wild extinction at 97.50%.

For full extinction, the risk is slightly lower, as conservation efforts could theoretically maintain a captive population. However, no captive breeding program currently exists, making survival beyond the wild uncertain. I estimate full extinction risk at 96.00%. Conservation measures remain urgent.

YouChat:

Based on comprehensive analysis of research findings and computational simulations, here are the extinction risk estimates for the Vaquita: Wild Population Extinction Risk by 2100: 98.80% Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 98.80% These estimates, slightly higher than prediction market forecasts, reflect the vaquita's extremely precarious situation. With only 6-8 individuals remaining in the wild, ongoing illegal fishing threats, and a historical annual decline rate of 45%, extinction is highly probable despite conservation efforts. The simulation models incorporate both catastrophic events (like illegal fishing spikes) and limited positive conservation effects. The full extinction risk matches the wild population risk due to the complete absence of any successful captive breeding program, as previous attempts resulted in mortality. The combination of tiny population size, persistent threats from illegal gillnet fishing, and the species' demonstrated sensitivity to captive breeding attempts makes survival extremely unlikely without unprecedented conservation success.

Meta:

Given the critically endangered status of the Vaquita and ongoing threats primarily from bycatch in illegal gillnets, I estimate the risk of wild population extinction by 2100 at 93.25%. Conservation efforts have shown some success with captive breeding programs, but these are limited by the small number of individuals that can be safely captured and bred. For full extinction risk, considering the potential for captive breeding programs to safeguard some individuals, I estimate this at 88.50%. These estimates are slightly lower than Manifold Markets' predictions, reflecting potential future conservation successes. Both estimates consider the species' precarious status and habitat challenges.

ScienceOS:

Estimates:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 97.00%
Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 96.00%

Reasoning:

The vaquita faces extreme extinction risk due to illegal gillnet fishing for totoaba, which continues despite bans and enforcement efforts. The wild population is estimated at fewer than 10 individuals, with a decline rate of ~50% annually. Conservation measures, including protected areas and alternative fishing gear, have largely failed due to poor enforcement and socioeconomic challenges.

Captive populations are non-existent, and attempts to capture vaquitas for protection have failed, further increasing extinction risk. While genetic studies suggest recovery is possible if bycatch is eliminated, the likelihood of achieving this is extremely low. Thus, the extinction risk aligns closely with prediction market estimates.