Will a Nobel Prize in Physics be given for progress in a Quantum theory of Gravity by 2026?
Plus
15
Ṁ14162026
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if by January 1st, 2026 a Nobel Prize has been given for groundbreaking research in any approach attempting to reconcile Quantum Mechanics and Gravity (String Theory, Loop Quantum Gravity, or others).
Usually the time it takes between research being conducted and being awarded the prize is a couple decades, but there is precedent for a quick prize if the results are particularly impressive (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17809614/). Plus, I do not want a market with too long of a time horizon.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
27% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
19% chance
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
45% chance
Will a unified theory of Quantum Gravity usurp the Standard Model before 2045?
77% chance
Will quantum mechanical properties prove explanatory for another biological process by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for work on superconductors before 2034?
48% chance
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
25% chance
Is gravity fundamentally quantum?
76% chance
Will Nobel Prizes be awarded in 2060?
70% chance
Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040?
18% chance