To date, 4 Nobel Prizes in Physics have been awarded for work in superconductivity: 1972, 1973, 1987. 2003. Will another Nobel Prize award be for work on superconductors before 2034?
(While this would likely be in Physics, that is not required.)
1,0002025 Prize was on quantum tunneling and energy quantization in superconductors, very similar to the 1973 Prize explicitly listed as precedent.
My take on the base rate: time-invariant Laplace suggests about 52% in the business-as-usual / ignorance-prior case, if you start counting at the first superconductor Nobel. Or about 33% if you start counting from the first Nobel prize to 35% if you count from the discovery of superconductivity.
@EvanDaniel If you want a semi-insider's take on the expert consensus, a lot of us inorganic chemists of various stripes have a vague feeling that some kind of superconduction breakthrough is close-ish, though it's tough to say if it gets awarded by 2034 even if it happens. An actual ambient superconductor would probably win a Nobel immediately, of course.