Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?
Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?
35
1kṀ1615
2041
36%
chance

Resolves NO if, at any point during his life, Xi is no longer considered the most powerful leader in China. Resolves YES if he dies at the top. I will extend this market indefinitely as necessary.

This may be biased toward NO, since he's only 69 and YES holders might have to wait decades to get their payout. Sorry.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

China
Chinese Politics
Who does Xi think he is?
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bought Ṁ100 YES10mo

Way too low. The guy has as much control as Mao had in a pre-modern society where people lack civic consciousness.

1y

I feel like an argument for YES though is that he could be assassinated in the near future before he has a chance to be overthrown

predictedNO 1y

@ithildulin True. I think an assassination is fairly unlikely though

predictedNO 1y

@ithildulin Or like, he could die from Covid or something (unlikely given the extreme measures he takes to avoid getting sick in any form but it would be sort of funny)

predictedNO 1y

@ithildulin It’s certainly possible

1y
predictedNO 1y

@Conflux

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