Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?
23
178
450
2041
28%
chance

Resolves NO if, at any point during his life, Xi is no longer considered the most powerful leader in China. Resolves YES if he dies at the top. I will extend this market indefinitely as necessary.

This may be biased toward NO, since he's only 69 and YES holders might have to wait decades to get their payout. Sorry.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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bought Ṁ5 of NO

I feel like an argument for YES though is that he could be assassinated in the near future before he has a chance to be overthrown

predicts NO

@ithildulin True. I think an assassination is fairly unlikely though

predicts NO

@ithildulin Or like, he could die from Covid or something (unlikely given the extreme measures he takes to avoid getting sick in any form but it would be sort of funny)

predicts NO

@ithildulin It’s certainly possible

bought Ṁ20 of NO
predicts NO