Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Question

Xi Jinping secured a historic 3rd term as China's general secretary. This 3rd term is set to last 5 years until 2027, when the 21st party congress takes place. Will Xi Jinping secure a 4th term and continue to lead China through the end of 2028?

Resolution

Resolves YES if Xi Jinping holds any of the following offices (or their equivalents, in case they are changed) through the end of 2028:

General Secretary of the Communist Party of China

Chairman of the Central Military Commission

President of the People's Republic of China

Resolves NO if at any point before the end of 2028, Xi holds none of these offices.

Resolution will be according to criteria at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/.

(Note that Xi assumed the office of General Secretary in November 2012 and assumed the office of President in March 2013 - this is why I wrote this question to ask about end of 2028 instead of 2027.)

Close date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 62% chance (83 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).