@Zorn is worried about a misresolution due to Isaac's large amount of shares, and has made a market about this. However, some bettors, such as @Gabrielle, have expressed that Zorn resolution risk is a higher worry to them than Isaac's, so I offered to make a duplicate.
Zorn said they will make a poll about the Whales vs. Minnows market. If they do, and this poll is agreed to be fair and uncontroversial, I will resolve based on their poll results. However, if there are any doubts about the poll, I will make my own poll on the Manifold Discord after Isaac resolves the market, with the wording "Do you believe that Isaac King correctly resolved their Whales vs Minnows market? https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-whales-win-this-market" and the reactions ✅ and ❌. I will leave it open for 48 hours and resolve this market YES if a majority votes yes, otherwise resolve NO. If there are allegations of voter fraud (e.g. creating multiple Discord accounts to vote multiple times), I will investigate them and remove all votes I believe to be fraudulent.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Apr 9, 8:04am: Will @IsaacKing correctly resolve the Whales vs. Minnows market? → Will @IsaacKing correctly resolve the Whales vs. Minnows market? [according to poll]
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,030 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,392 | |
| 3 | Ṁ468 | |
| 4 | Ṁ92 | |
| 5 | Ṁ48 |
@Conflux Zorn's poll has been conducted and the market resolved. It's debatable, since it only ran for 13 hours, but YES won with 6-1, which seems like a decently strong lead. I personally am fine with resolving YES here (I would be, after all), but it would be reasonable for you to want to do your own poll.
@JimHays I was planning on still doing what I said in the market description. I don’t think me being a resolution councillor changes that?
@JimHays He won't run the poll. This market's resolution is based on the poll that I will run on my market
@Conflux I was trying to get at Isaac potentially not actually resolving the market (and someone else doing it) rather than your position as a council member.
@JimHays Ah, fair. I guess you could argue Isaac didn't resolve the market, I did. Nevertheless, I think it's clear what this market is asking.
@jack The drop might actually be correct. This controversy unfortunately lined up with one of my job weekends, so I've been very unresponsive to questions/concerns, and traders are (rightfully) annoyed about that. I don't think that renders my resolution "incorrect", but I could see some of the less principled traders voting that way.