MANIFOLD
Will I qualify for the 2024 International Linguistics Olympiad?
21
แน€610แน€1.7k
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
YES

I was the first alternate for 2023, and I've learned a few more tips since...but will I have the dedication and luck needed to qualify for my last chance: the 2024 IOL planned for Brasilia, Brazil?

See my 2023 market for more details on my past performance โ€” if I have the energy, or this market gets popular, I'll copy them over:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Note: Iโ€™m not sure whether Iโ€™m going to actually compete, see below. But I did get an email informing me Iโ€™ve qualified.

@Conflux Iโ€™ve decided Iโ€™m planning to relinquish my spot, because I think the person who counterfactually replaces me will get more out of the experience than me.

I was thinking of doing a full practice Invitational this weekend, but I actually decided I'm not going to do any prep for the exam, which is next Thursday. The reason is that I was thinking more about what it'd mean for me to be at the IOL, and I realized I'm not especially interested in going full aggro mode to take a slot away from someone who's probably (~75% on each of these) more interested in linguistics than me these days, more excited to go to Brasilia, more inclined to participate in the prep sessions / study / want to be a good member of Team USA, and maybe more likely to benefit from the networking aspect. Especially when I've already proven that I'm approximately good enough.

Anyway, I did get #7 on the Open Round with similar non-amounts of prep, and I acquired some new highlighters, so I might still get top 8 on the Invitational. Note that if I qualify for the IOL but decide to stand aside and not compete in Brasilia, the market would still resolve YES.

Ranked #7 in US on the Open (#9 including Canadians) with almost no prep. If I kept up that relative performance level for the Invitational, Iโ€™d barely qualify for Brazilia. I feel excited so Iโ€™ll probably do some prep in the coming months!

bought แน€60 NO

@Conflux wait why did I bet yes. itโ€™s true that this data point is an upward update but the market was too high before anyway

orz

predictedYES

orz

its triv

How much do you prepare/plan on preparing?

@Logaems Iโ€™m not sure yet - thatโ€™s part of what this market predicts. My preparation will probably happen closer to the Invitational Round, so like Feb/March.

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