Will I qualify for the 2023 International Linguistics Olympiad?
58%
chance

I'll be taking NACLO (North American Computational Linguistics Olympiad) this year for the third time! If I perform well enough, I'd qualify for the US team at the IOL (yes, that's the abbreviation for the International Linguistics Olympiad, don't worry about it). I came pretty close last year!

The Path to the IOL

I'd have to score in the top 10% of the NACLO Open Round (this Thursday, Jan. 26) to qualify for the NACLO Invitational Round. Then, in the Invitational (Thursday, March 16), I'd have to rank in the top 8 among US contestants, or narrowly outside the top 8 if enough other competitors can't make it to the IOL in Bulgaria (July 23-29).

[Update: I think I did well on the Open Round. Scores get posted March 1.]

My Past Results

In 2021, I scored 56.1651 on the Open Round, narrowly missing the Invitational cutoff of 58. (Though I would've advanced if I were Canadian...) But I had a lot of fun and really got a feel for the contest: for example, it's 3 hours, but it's not enough time.

In 2022, with better time management, I scored 74.282 on the Open Round, making the Invitational cutoff of 58 and ranking #25. Then, I practiced a lot for the Invitational Round and ranked #13, one away from being a US team alternate, with a score of 48.339. A score of 54.5 would have qualified me for the IOL. (Or being Canadian.)

I think I really got into the zone last year. While I've probably improved since then, I might just not be in the right headspace on Invitational day, or my performance might simply regress to the mean or have plateaued. Still, an IOL performance is possible! I plan to seriously prepare for the Invitational and try my best.

Resolution Criteria

I will resolve this market YES when: I receive a credible email inviting me to the IOL; or published NACLO Invitational results show me in the top 8. I will resolve NO when: published Open Round results show that I have not qualified for the Invitational; published Invitational Round results show that I have ranked #13 or lower; or, if I've ranked 9-12 (officially an "alternate"), I haven't been invited to the IOL by the time it starts.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Close date updated to 2023-07-23 11:59 pm

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AryamanArora avatar
Aryaman Arora
bought Ṁ10 of NO

GL!

Cadence avatar
Cadence
bought Ṁ10 of NO

good luck!