Will I lose my new AirPods in 2023?
25
470Ṁ1622
resolved Jan 1
Resolved as
50%

After losing my case of AirPods in May (though I had them for a year plus without losing them), I acquired new AirPods, which are more expensive and larger.

I keep having close calls with losing these AirPods. In particular, the case keeps falling out of my backpack - though I have a keychain now and am planning to use a carabiner. One day recently, a single one of the AirPods fell out and I didn't realize it - though luckily it fell out at home. Today, while on a road trip (with the AirPods but not my backpack) they fell out of my pocket into the crevice of the car.

I plan to take extra care not to lose my AirPods (I love having AirPods), but nevertheless, the close calls keep piling up. I'm also somewhat prone to losing items. Will I lose my new AirPods for good before the year is over?

To count for this market, it must be a full week without the AirPods turning up anywhere I can get them back from. If they get totaled but I still have the remains, that counts as being lost.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.   

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@Conflux how are the airpods doing?

@Eliza I’ve still got one!

@Conflux Was wondering if you would have magically found the 2nd one.

predictedYES

update: AVOCADO AIRPODS CASE https://www.instagram.com/p/Cw9iEUsuIWS/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Jacob Cohen on Instagram: "My new AirPods case! …what? I’ve been waiting for the right moment to make my Instagram debut, and I think I’ve found it! But it requires some context. Last December in Las Vegas, I happened to visit Omegamart, this cool parody of grocery chains and American consumerism (see pics of gom/root-beer-flavored-vape-juice-flavored-root-beer/etc). And they were selling an avocado coin purse! CLEARLY a bargain at $13.99, even though I had no clear use for it… I actually ended up to storing actual coins in it for awhile. Uncreative, I know, I was disappointed in me too. (The other iconic - and totally coincidental - avocado anecdote from that trip: my hotel’s cafe sold an Espresso Avocado smoothie.) Fast forward to a week ago. I lost my right AirPod, probably since it fell out of my backpack into the street, after losing a previous set of AirPods only three months prior. I admit I may be prone to losing AirPods. I also admit to being spoiled on AirPods (though my earbuds and headphones have been especially capricious). They are somewhat expensive (esp if I lose them in three months). However, thanks to my mom’s genius, we acquired a free left AirPod from someone on this “buy nothing” Facebook group! At first I couldn’t get it paired with my phone, but with help from my dad and the factory reset button, it worked! And even though they’re different models of AirPod, my phone can play to both simultaneously! (I still have to check my computer, but it doesn’t matter as much to me.) However, though necessary for charging, it seemed annoying (not to mention the risk of losing them again) to carry two separate AirPods cases around… so (and I must credit my mom again for the great idea) I now have an AVOCADO! AIRPODS! CASE! silicon valley’s favorite vegetable* + its favorite way to listen to music. try and find me something more aesthetic and instagrammable, I dare you.** Anyway, no promises about Instagramming in the future, but I wanted to share this! Thanks for reading to the end of the caption, sorry it was long… *tomato is also a vegetable, as is pineapple **actually there are probably lots of such things, but be quiet y’all"
16 likes, 6 comments - jacobcohen4761 on September 8, 2023: "My new AirPods case! …what? I’ve been waiting for the right moment to make my Instagram debu..."
predictedYES

update: somehow the one AirPod has been more consistently acceptable than my earbud/headphone options. so maybe I will lose it after all…

Wait, ironically I just realized that losing one AirPod makes it less likely that I’ll lose the other, since it’s not as good so I’ll be less likely to bring the single AirPod places / more likely to buy a replacement.

predictedYES

@Conflux I think if you end up buying a replacement it counts as you losing one

predictedYES

@awse eh, it's still one airpod

@Conflux so you’re telling me this only is YES if you lose both, not if you lose an individual Left or Right item?

predictedYES

@awse I haven’t spent a lot of time considering it, and I forgot this was a possibility when I wrote the description, so I might change my mind, especially if traders disagree (I can also send you some mana if you want). But the title is about whether I lose my AirPods, plural, and one AirPod isn’t useless - it sort of does provide about 50% of the value of AirPods?

I lost…one of the AirPods (which I think should resolve 50%). I’m worried my backpack was open and it’s in the streets of SF somewhere, but it might be somewhere recoverable

predictedYES

@Conflux (also, the clock of one week starts now)

predictedYES

@Conflux Losing one being 50% feels reasonable to me.

@Conflux I think it’s probably gone for good

What if you lose them on December 30th? Also what is your policy on betting yes?

predictedNO

@JoshuaB If I lose them in the last week of December, I’ll wait for the full one-week period to resolve the market.

I will not attempt to lose my AirPods, because I really don’t want to lose them. Therefore, I may bet YES predictively.

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