Will I be accepted to these AI safety fellowship programs for Winter 2026?
12
1.1kαΉ€2208
Nov 29
12%
MATS
8%
Constellation Astra
46%
ARENA

About me:

  • Stanford sophomore, studying Symbolic Systems / Math / random rabbitholes

  • Volunteered at The Curve, ILIAD, and other conferences β€” have met some people in the field

  • Haven't really done any prior research in AI ... worried about this :(

Feel free to ask questions or give recommendations!

If I don't apply to any of these programs, I will resolve to my best-guess probability of what my chances would have been.

I will not bet unless probabilities seem extremely wrong.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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I GOT INTO MARS

(specifically the stream where I described myself as a personality hire!)

(I did not apply to ERA)

@Conflux that's awesome! Congratulations!

@Conflux Nice one!

boughtαΉ€110 YES

@Jasonb IS THIS INSIDER TRADING

i'm manifesting that it is

@Conflux πŸ‘€

Astra is a lost cause β€” there was a 5 hour coding portion to the application that was tonight, and I uhhh didn’t do it

@Conflux This is actually not quite true. I think I previously misinterpreted emails, and some streams are a lost cause, but I'm still eligible for field-building streams (which have a different test that I do anticipate doing tomorrow)

@Conflux I didn’t do that one either

Feeling newly bullish on MARS! I had an interview with Peter Barnett for a SECOND stream where I think I came off well?

tbh I can’t really think of anything I did wrong that interview!

I had my interview with Logan Smith & Thomas Dooms for their stream of MARS!

we laughed a lot.

y'all, if they accept me, I will be the personality hire

Updates:

  • I advanced to stage 2 of the MARS application. I don't think this is a big deal? This stage is essentially just applying to research streams; it's not a fun coding task or interview or anything like that. I plan to investigate the streams thoroughly and present a good application.

  • I hastily applied to ARENA on the day it was due.

  • I "missed the deadline" for FIG (busy with life!) but they claim in the FAQ that you can submit up to a week late

I just took the CodeSignal test for MATS. I coded almost everything! 925 / 1000 points in 90 minutes. I don't know if that's "good" or not; I could imagine a hardcore CS person acing the whole thing in 30 mins. But I do think timed tests are a comparative advantage of mine?

I officially applied to MARS and MATS! For MATS, I applied to the Megastream and the AI Futures Project (listing my Manifold expertise lol)

My current mood is pessimistic / underqualified. If you think that is impostor syndrome feel free to bet YES…

Would you please tag this "Will I" or "Personal Question

"If I don't apply to any of these programs, I will resolve to my best-guess probability of what my chances would have been"

Can you indicate which programs you actually intend on applying for? I don't want to bet on what you think the probability would have been.

@StephenFowler28ac I think my chance of applying to each individual program is >50%. I have spent a bit more time thinking about MARS and MATS, so maybe those are your best ones to bet on?

@StephenFowler28ac I’ve now applied to MARS and MATS. It seems likely I’ll apply to all five

I ended up not applying to FIG actually…

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