https://x.com/metzgov/status/1829262914622251320?s=46&t=ik-0zQiQiUOXlT3sQLyoeA

Resolves YES if Harris wins the 2024 election and nominates a Republican to any Cabinet-level position (even if the Senate rejects them). To count, they must be a currently registered Republican (if they are from a state with party registration) or else a currently self-identified Republican. Resolves NO if she leaves office without doing so.

If Harris loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before Election Day. (Hopefully this should be fairly resistant to manipulation.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.