Will Harris actually nominate a Republican to her Cabinet if elected?

Plus

Ṁ7163

resolved Nov 8

Resolved as

72%

ALL

https://x.com/metzgov/status/1829262914622251320?s=46&t=ik-0zQiQiUOXlT3sQLyoeA

Resolves YES if Harris wins the 2024 election and nominates a Republican to any Cabinet-level position (even if the Senate rejects them). To count, they must be a currently registered Republican (if they are from a state with party registration) or else a currently self-identified Republican. Resolves NO if she leaves office without doing so.

If Harris loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before Election Day. (Hopefully this should be fairly resistant to manipulation.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Kamala Harris

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1,000

and

3.00

11 Comments

81 Holders

102 Trades

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ugh how do I calculate this average easily

@Conflux

(  (24+17.5)*0.638
+ (24+5)*0.635
+ (22)*0.768
+ (24*3+3.5)*0.778)/(24*7)
= 0.717

FEATURED IN ACX

I think the quote was "was a Republican" which leaves room for former Republicans. How will you resolve if she appoints someone who was registered as a Republican but registered as something else (including independent) before being seated?

@C3POtheDragonSlayer Hmm, I’m not sure. What do traders think is reasonable?

A later quote is "Kamala Harris says she plans to appoint a Republican to her Cabinet", which doesn't leave any room for that interpretation in my view.

(I haven't traded on this market)

@NcyRocks Okay, I'll stick with the description, where it must be a literal registered Republican.

@Conflux Some states don't have party registration

@nikki Ok, in that case I'll go by party affiliation for those states

Interested to see how this market's PROB resolution will turn out (if it does). I agree that it seems fairly resistant to manipulation.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Kinzinger for Sec Def.

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