In the most recent video on the Physics Girl YouTube channel, Simone Giertz said that Dianna Cowern's condition is "potentially life-threatening ... Dianna's health has spiraled down to the point where she can barely move, she can't feed herself, and in the past week, she has been to the ER twice. Dianna has Long Covid, and that has triggered something called ME/CFS. It's a chronic fatigue syndrome that is extremely debilitating, and Kyle, her husband, has become her full-time caretaker."
There have been some debates on whether it's ethical to make markets about people dying. I think it's good to have a sense of the true probability: I want to know how worried I should be that such a pillar of the educational YouTube community could actually die, since I don't have a lot of medical knowledge. However, if Dianna or any of her representatives objects, I will resolve this market N/A, which undoes all bets. I sincerely wish her a quick and full recovery.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Firstly, I want to express sympathy for everyone and their family members suffering with ME.
Deaths from ME seem to be rare (6 reported per year in UK), despite 0.4% (240,000 reported in UK) of the population suffering from ME. It's possible this is a significant undercount.
Dianne being homebound would put her in the 25% most severe with ME (or 60,000 in UK). Which I assume means the odds of a bed-ridden patient with ME having ME listed on their death certificate, is 1 in 10,000.
A study on long covid patients estimates a 2.5x increase in death (2.8% in long-covid group, compared to 1.2% in control). A 30 year old female in the US chance of death is <0.1%. Which means a 2.5x increase would be below <2%.
I am pretty uncertain that I am considering all the options here, observing the data correctly, or able to estimate the probability of underreporting. I am at <2%