By profit at midnight Eastern (9pm Pacific), however that's measured on the leaderboard. (Caveat: if there is clear manipulation of this market, I reserve the right to ignore such manipulation, based on available evidence and public opinion.) If the leaderboard stops existing, I'll try to ask Manifold devs for the answer.
In case of duplicate answers, I will resolve to the first correct answer submitted. Please add new answers as correctly-spelled @usernames. In the bizarre event of an exact tie, I will resolve in equal percentages to the tied users.
I wanted to make this to test out the new Manifold multiple-choice markets with "Other" as an option. Since it's so far in the future (after the 2024 elections!), the probability of "Other" should start high, but then slowly split and dwindle as time passes on.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00@Eliza “However that’s measured on the leaderboard.” I think that implies whichever is most prominent?