What probability will I assign to Jeanne Calment having been a fraud?
62%
chance
Jun 3
M$30 bet
Jeanne Calment is generally held to have lived to 122, but no one else has ever lived to 122. Or 121. Or 120. However, it's possible she was a fraud - one theory is that her daughter, Yvonne, impersonated her when she died in 1934 to avoid inheritance taxes. (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/02/17/was-jeanne-calment-the-oldest-person-who-ever-lived-or-a-fraud) I have a hard time assessing how plausible this theory is, and on the other hand how plausible it is that she genuinely lived so much longer than the second-place person. What probability will I assign, a month from today, to Jeanne Calment's age record being fraudulent? I should add that she died chronologically before the next fourteen people on the list of oldest people, which given the increasing world population is also fairly suspicious to me.