What probability will I assign to Jeanne Calment having been a fraud?
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resolved Jun 3
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Jeanne Calment is generally held to have lived to 122, but no one else has ever lived to 122. Or 121. Or 120. However, it's possible she was a fraud - one theory is that her daughter, Yvonne, impersonated her when she died in 1934 to avoid inheritance taxes. (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/02/17/was-jeanne-calment-the-oldest-person-who-ever-lived-or-a-fraud) I have a hard time assessing how plausible this theory is, and on the other hand how plausible it is that she genuinely lived so much longer than the second-place person. What probability will I assign, a month from today, to Jeanne Calment's age record being fraudulent? I should add that she died chronologically before the next fourteen people on the list of oldest people, which given the increasing world population is also fairly suspicious to me.
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A new market on this:

The data still seems suspicious to me, but the fraud story kind of looks suspicious. Idk, no one gave any arguments

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