What probability will I assign to Jeanne Calment having been a fraud?
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Jeanne Calment is generally held to have lived to 122, but no one else has ever lived to 122. Or 121. Or 120. However, it's possible she was a fraud - one theory is that her daughter, Yvonne, impersonated her when she died in 1934 to avoid inheritance taxes. (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/02/17/was-jeanne-calment-the-oldest-person-who-ever-lived-or-a-fraud)
I have a hard time assessing how plausible this theory is, and on the other hand how plausible it is that she genuinely lived so much longer than the second-place person. What probability will I assign, a month from today, to Jeanne Calment's age record being fraudulent?
I should add that she died chronologically before the next fourteen people on the list of oldest people, which given the increasing world population is also fairly suspicious to me.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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