If Trump loses the 2024 election and is able to leave the country and live abroad, will he do so by end of 2026?
➕
Plus
22
Ṁ1475
2027
23%
chance

Resolves N/A if he wins. Also resolves N/A if he is incarcerated, under house arrest, dead, or otherwise unable to leave the United States.

If the question of whether he’s officially transitioned to living outside the country is subjective, I will use best judgement, or defer to Matt Glassman (whose post this market is based on) if he weighs in.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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More likely that he never leaves Florida and DeSantis shields him from the feds. Then DeSantis runs in 2028 and instantly gets all Trump supporters.

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