This market resolves to YES if there is credible evidence that the US administration has taken concrete steps to force SpaceX to cease Starlink operations in Ukraine before June 1st, 2025.

According to Reuters reporting, the US has previously threatened to shut off Starlink if Ukraine wouldn't sign a critical minerals deal. This market will track whether such threats materialize into actual attempts to shut down the service.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the US government, SpaceX, or credible reporting from major news outlets confirming such attempts.

References:

• https://kyivindependent.com/us-threatens-to-shut-off-starlink-if-ukraine-wont-sign-minerals-deal-sources-tell-reuters/

• http://broadbandbreakfast.com/reuters-u-s-threatens-ukraines-starlink-access-in-negotiations-again/

  Background

  Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, has been crucial for Ukraine's military and civilian communications since Russia's invasion in 2022. According to Reuters reporting, U.S. negotiators have allegedly threatened to cut off Ukraine's access to Starlink if Ukraine refused to sign a critical minerals deal. However, Elon Musk has publicly denied these reports.

  The U.S. government has significant influence over Starlink operations in conflict zones, as demonstrated by previous incidents where service limitations were implemented in certain regions. SpaceX requires U.S. government approval for providing Starlink services in areas of active conflict.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves to YES if, before June 1st, 2025, there is credible evidence that the U.S. administration has taken concrete steps to force SpaceX to cease Starlink operations in Ukraine. Such evidence may include:

  • Official announcements or directives from the U.S. government ordering the cessation of Starlink services in Ukraine

  • Confirmed reports that the U.S. has revoked necessary licenses or permissions for SpaceX to operate Starlink in Ukraine

  • Credible reporting from major news outlets with multiple sources confirming U.S. government actions to shut down Starlink in Ukraine

  • Public statements from SpaceX or Elon Musk confirming U.S. government pressure to terminate services

  The market resolves to NO if by June 1st, 2025, no such evidence emerges.

  Considerations

  • Mere threats or negotiations where Starlink access is used as leverage will not be sufficient for a YES resolution unless they progress to concrete actions.

  • Temporary service disruptions due to technical issues or other non-governmental factors will not count toward resolution.

  • Partial restrictions (such as limiting service in certain regions of Ukraine or for certain applications) would count as a YES if they are clearly imposed at the direction of the U.S. administration.