Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) officially lowers the federal funds rate target range (currently set at 3.50% – 3.75%) on or before August 14, 2026 (eight weeks from the market creation date of June 19, 2026).

The market will resolve to NO if the Fed does not lower the federal funds rate target range during this period, instead choosing to keep it steady or raise it.

• Source of Truth: Official statements and press releases issued by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, viewable on the Federal Reserve News & Events portal.

• Key Meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 28–29, 2026, which falls within this eight-week window. Any emergency unscheduled rate cuts announced on or before August 14, 2026, will also resolve this market as YES.

• Clarification: This market is benchmarked to the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate. If the market creator intended to track a different central bank's interest rates, they should edit these criteria to specify the alternative institution prior to resolution.

Background

On June 17, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bilateral memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran, establishing a 60-day window to negotiate a permanent peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Although subsequent technical talks scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland were abruptly called off due to renewed fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the ongoing diplomatic process remains a central focus for global energy markets.

Meanwhile, at its June 16–17, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve—overseen by newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh—kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed signaled a hawkish stance, with several policymakers projecting potential rate increases later in the year to combat persistent 4.2% inflation, which has been exacerbated by Middle East energy supply shocks. This market asks whether peace negotiations will help ease global economic pressures and prompt the Fed to pivot toward lowering rates by its late-July meeting.