I thought that the nice repetition of "twenty-twenty" would get people to stop pronouncing years at the beginning of the 21st century as "two thousand..." but apparently it hasn't.
If in 2023 I hear (or otherwise perceive) someone pronouncing a year between 2010 and 2099 as "two thousand..." then this market resolves to YES. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
The speech in question must have been both produced and perceived in 2023. For prerecorded material, if there is no recording date that I can reasonably ascertain, I will base it on my subjective perception of typical production times. (For example, major films usually take years to produce, so I will presume that the dialogue in any film released in 2023 was recorded in prior years.) I will favor excluding speech in ambiguous cases. (For example, if a music album is known to have been recorded in 2022 and 2023, I will presume that any lyrics were recorded in 2022 unless I have evidence to the contrary.)
The speech must be actual sound in contemporary English or a sign language meant to convey contemporary English, although it may be a translation of foreign-language speech.
I will exclude the following:
Traditional forms such as "the year of our Lord two thousand and twenty-three"
Speech that is part of a discussion of these different ways of pronouncing years
Speech that is straightforwardly reading from or reproducing something created in prior years, when it clearly includes a year as "two thousand..." (For example, reading from a written prediction about "the year two thousand and fifty" would be excluded, but reading from a written prediction about "the year 2050" would not be excluded.)
Alternative forms of perception I will include are sign language, captions, and transcripts (but not written quotations included within other material). These alternative forms of perception must clearly indicate that the speaker used a form with "two thousand" as opposed to "twenty-" (so a transcript that simply indicated "2023" would not count).
For the purposes of this market, the year 2023 refers to any time between 12:00 UTC on 2022-12-31 and 12:00 UTC on 2024-01-01 (to allow for some time-zone differences), or on a date in 2023 if the exact time is unavailable.
I will not trade in this market.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 4:00 am
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I am planning to make some (possibly inconsequential but nontrivial) changes to the resolution criteria.
First, I plan to change "modern English" to "contemporary English" to better reflect the sort of language I am expecting. "Modern English" is a technical term to refer to English as spoken since the late 15th century, which is a far wider time range than I intend.
Second, I plan to add another exclusion for speech that is straightforwardly reading from or reproducing something created in prior years, but only when it clearly includes "two thousand..." as opposed to, for example, a number in figures. (For example, reading from a written prediction about "the year two thousand and fifty" would be excluded. However, reading from a written prediction about "the year 2050" would not be excluded.)