In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?
24
1kṀ841
2101
78%
Other
7%
The Singularity
3%
Post-Information Age
3%
The internet age
2%
Anthropocene
1.5%
Pre AGI period
1.4%
Second Interwar Period

If there is a near concensus, that is good enough.

If the era is named in some other language only, we’ll take the nearest translation.

If a very similar term is used, that's good enough. Ie Internet age = Internet era = internet period. If you have edge cases, you are welcome to ask for clarification before betting on it.

Resolves to the judgement of whoever’s in charge of this market in 2100.

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria:

    • The resolution will select the most valid name or a combination of the most valid names such that their percentages add up to 100%.

    • The final decision will be made by the rulers of this market in 2100. (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

I don't see how these kind of names could be mutually exclusive. Like the 1930s could be called both "Great depression" and "Interwar period". Both are equally valid.

5mo

@OlegEterevsky resolves to the most valid or a combination of the most valids st their percentage adds up to 100%; whichever seems most appropriate to the rulers of this market in 2100

1y

What are examples of past named eras that would resolve markets similar to this one? Right off the bat I don't think I can think of any period that has a single, consensus, non-overlapping era name.

1y

@BrunoParga could be consensus and also overlapping, though?

@Stralor but if there's overlap then it can have multiple resolutions. 100 years ago was the Roaring 20s (in the US at least), it was also the interwar period, it was also the "age of extremes" if you care about Eric Hobsbawm, it was also the industrial era, it was also the modern ages (or "contemporary" age, if you ask the French), it was also AD (anno domini) and so on.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy