This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
Counts if legislation is passed
see also:
/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the
/CodeandSolder/will-sweden-try-to-ban-burning-the-d1fca89c8442
/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the-febcd43d4d9f
/CodeandSolder/will-denmark-try-to-ban-burning-the-0058aa11485a
Can you elaborate more what you will base the resolution PROB on? In your post you have the line "Counts if legislation is passed". Does this mean the needle only moves on any passed legislation?
As you've posted, a poll shows about 50% of Swedes would support a ban. If no legislation were to follow, and the support sticks around 50%, what would the PROB end up being?
I suppose im just generally confused by the notion of "will Sweden do X by 2025" ending in a PROB score by 2025. Shouldnt it always resolve in YES/NO, assuming we can set clearer resolution criteria?
@Dennis5a87 I forgot to take that out from the usual template, I expect YES if legislation passed, NO if not, unless I'm missing some edge case