Will Sweden legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
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Would the law they passed last month qualify as self-identification? The relevant legal text (roughly translated by me) says:
A person who has reached the age of 16 shall, upon application, have it established that the person has a gender other than that shown in the population register if [...] the gender shown in the population register does not correspond to the person's perceived gender identity, and it can be assumed that the person will live in this gender identity for the foreseeable future.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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