Background GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs are currently one of the fastest-growing segments in the pharmaceutical industry, primarily used for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity. The market is dominated by private companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Many sources predict a very significant impact of cost of those drugs on public health systems, which could potentially be solved by a Manhattan Project-like development effort to create a government-owned alternative.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• A company that is >50% owned by any national government receives regulatory approval for a new GLP-1 drug in at least two major markets (US, EU, UK, Japan, China) before January 1, 2040

• The drug must be a novel GLP-1 receptor agonist, not a generic version or biosimilar of an existing drug

The market will resolve NO if:

• No majority government-owned company receives such approval before 2040

• A government-owned company only receives approval for a generic/biosimilar version

• A company with minority government ownership (<50%) introduces a GLP-1 drug