Might as well make a market since after a few comments I'm still perplexed. I respect @Mira and they have been thoughtful to me. Informed people have expressed the opinion that they are "important" to the Manifold economy and this seems right. But "important" enough so the place collapses without them? Maybe. Why? How? Inquiring minds want to know. Resolves to YES if over 50% at 11:59 pm Pacific January 14, 2024. Resolves to NO if 50% or under at that time. Does not resolve if in the interim @Mira does indeed retire to their tent and Manifold does indeed collapse, but in that event track me down IRL and I will buy you a drink at a place of my choosing.
Related questions
Mira already did this, I ruled that it would have counted as a crisis for my memey market but if you're asking as a serious question about the manifold "economy" then no, any one trader selling off their positions isn't a big deal because everyone else can quickly correct it.
Whalebait resolutions are bad though. You can make them a bit better by closing at a random time to prevent sniping, but a poll is still better. You can even build a poll into a market by saying you'll count up the number of yes positions vs no positions, if you don't want to make a separate poll.
@Joshua Thank you! I must not understand the term "whalebait" then. I've just never gotten a good answer why Manifold or at least some commenters treated them as though they were "too big to fail" and got tired of asking.
I didn't rope in the other person I know of who received similar treatment only because I have a much better idea who Mira is and figured they're busy with other stuff and wouldn't care much.
@SavioMak I've encountered the term and common sense suggests a meaning but I'm not trying to bait anyone. What I'm fishing for is an answer to the question I asked.
@ClubmasterTransparent The point is your resolution criteria encourages players with large net worth (whales) to snipe and buy it to the opposite direction shortly before market close, no matter what the question is actually about.