https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1789367327290712532
"Probably 3 to 5 weeks. Objective is for the ship to get past max heating or at least further than last time.Probably 3 to 5 weeks. Objective is for the ship to get past max heating or at least further than last time".
11 May 2024

11 May +5 weeks = 15 June and Musk is well known for being time optimistic.
Just 1 more of a contender?

Getting to 3 seems to be becoming less likely: if it is at 3 week timeframe that is 1 June and gaps are coming down from 4 months to 2.5 months but that isn't a halving of the gap so less than a month seems unlikely even if the hardware is more ready- already done a static fire.

So are we getting to the stage where just 1 is more likely than 3?

Should the price on this market be under 40% now or soon?

May to October 6 month market at

Back to 50% so exactly 2.5 launches expected. I think it could be 1 2 or 3 but 2 and 3 more likely than 1 so maybe 40-45% is more what I expected