Resolve% increases 20% for each Starship (with superheavy) launch from 12 Dec 2023 to 30 June 2024 UTC
17
1kṀ461resolved Jun 24
Resolved as
40%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If no such launches resolves at 0%.
If 1 such launch resolves at 20%
If 2 such launches resolves at 40%
If 3 such launches resolves at 60%
If 4 such launches resolves at 80%
If 5 or more such launches resolves at 100%
As elsewhere launch requires upward movement as intended. An explosion on pad before takeoff time causing it to rise doesn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Related questions
How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?
Which months of 2025 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
76% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will SpaceX conduct >100 Starship launches in 2025?
1% chance
Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
75% chance
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
17% chance
Will Starship launch one thousand times by 2040?
59% chance
Number of Star Ship launches by 2030?