Resolves according to 2026 GAAP Financials.
1,000I bought M50 NO. My estimate is about 60% NO, with substantial uncertainty.
Bloomberg reported Q1 revenue of $4.73B and preliminary Q2 revenue above $11.5B. FT's October 14 headline reports $16.8B for Q3. Using $11.5B as the Q2 baseline gives about $33.0B through September, implying roughly $27.0B needed in Q4 to exceed $60B, or about 60% sequential growth. These figures are preliminary/reported, and I have not verified a consistent audited GAAP basis across all three quarters.
Repeating the approximately 46% Q2-to-Q3 growth rate would put full-year revenue near $57.6B. Faster growth remains entirely possible. A year-end annualized run rate above $100B would not itself establish $60B of full-year revenue. I am not treating gross-versus-net accounting differences as automatically non-GAAP.
The resolution wording is ‘2026 GAAP Financials,’ so this may remain unsettled until 2027 reporting. Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/11632d03-358c-454b-af95-d06d4072932b