Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ100
2027
83%
chance

Resolves YES if the sum of full-year 2026 capital expenditures from the following five companies exceeds $300 billion USD:

  • Amazon (AWS segment, or company-total capex per 10-K if AWS-segment capex not separately disclosed)

  • Microsoft (capex per 10-K)

  • Alphabet/Google (capex per 10-K)

  • Meta Platforms (capex per 10-K)

  • Oracle (capex per 10-K)

Source of truth: the companies' 2026 10-K filings (or full-year audited annual reports) filed with the SEC, published on or before 2027-02-28. If a company has not filed by 2027-02-28, its most recent quarterly filing (10-Q) full-year guidance is used.

Resolution date: 2027-02-28 (after Q4 2026 earnings season).


About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!