Resolves YES if the sum of full-year 2026 capital expenditures from the following five companies exceeds $300 billion USD:
Amazon (AWS segment, or company-total capex per 10-K if AWS-segment capex not separately disclosed)
Microsoft (capex per 10-K)
Alphabet/Google (capex per 10-K)
Meta Platforms (capex per 10-K)
Oracle (capex per 10-K)
Source of truth: the companies' 2026 10-K filings (or full-year audited annual reports) filed with the SEC, published on or before 2027-02-28. If a company has not filed by 2027-02-28, its most recent quarterly filing (10-Q) full-year guidance is used.
Resolution date: 2027-02-28 (after Q4 2026 earnings season).
About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.
Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.
Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.
Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.