I’ve applied in the previous six years and my application was never selected. However, this is the first year with wage-based weighting (my salary qualifies me for four entries) and also applications may be depressed by the $100k fee (which would apply to some but not all applicants) and other political happenings. I’m feeling optimistic.

I will resolve upon my registration being selected (i.e. I would not wait until my subsequent application is approved). If my registration is not selected, I will wait until USCIS confirms that no further lotteries will be run this year. The closing date is a set with the latter possibility in mind, but in all likelihood this market will resolve earlier.