Will conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
5
100Ṁ125
2030
41%
chance

This market immediately resolves as YES if, before January 1, 2030, clear and conclusive evidence emerges demonstrating that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been acting as a Russian asset. Evidence must be highly credible and definitive, such as:

  • Orbán openly confessing to acting under Russian influence or control.

  • Orbán fleeing or defecting to Russia.

  • Verified proof (such as authenticated documents, recordings, or credible investigative findings from reputable intelligence or governmental sources) showing direct coordination or collaboration with Vladimir Putin or Russian authorities against the national interests of Hungary.


Speculation, accusations, or inconclusive investigations alone are insufficient for resolving YES. Market resolves as NO if no such definitive evidence emerges by market close.


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bought Ṁ30 YES

He very clearly is a Russian asset, although the nature of that association is unclear as of 2025. I think the timelines where this question resolve as YES are generally those where he is charged with treason in Hungary and ends up fleeing to Russia (similar to Yanukovych)

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