Will credible evidence emerge linking Tulsi Gabbard to Putin before 2030?
Will credible evidence emerge linking Tulsi Gabbard to Putin before 2030?
10
100Ṁ509
2030
21%
chance

Resolves YES if credible evidence emerges that Gabbard worked for Russia at any point in time after 24.02.2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine (possibly but not necessarily still ongoing in 2030).

I will not bet on this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
13d

she's leaking it all back to the Kremlin

13d

She's probably the one who encouraged them to use Signal to make it easier, they just somehow screwed up and added Goldberg to the chat 🤣

13d

@MalachiteEagle what do you think the probability is that this will resolve yes?

13d

@Shai Good question. By 2030 I'm not entirely sure, it depends on a lot of factors that are hard to predict. If she gets arrested in that timeframe then the likelihood of credible evidence being made public goes up by a lot, but even then it's not 100%.

Would be interesting to have another question like this one where the resolution date is 2100.

13d

@Shai my guess is her gameplan is to keep walking in lockstep with Russia's interests and rapidly spread its influence in the US establishment, anticipating that there will be a major conflict between the US and China/Russia in the next 10 years. If things play out the way she's hoping then that influence will reap personal dividends when the time comes.

13d

Only problem is that she's not really smart enough to pull it off without major fumbles. This episode is just one example, and it's likely that much more egregious violations of operational security will occur under her watch. Question then is how do the other branches of government react, and will they wake up in time

12d

fumble fumble

4mo

you may wanna edit that title. i think you mean 2030?

@mattyb Fixed.Thanks!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules