As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market.
Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options.
Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm
June Huh
Chosen 25%
25%
James Maynard
Chosen 25%
27%
Maryna Viazovska
Chosen 25%
19%
Hugo Duminil-Copin
Chosen 25%
24%
Scott Lawrence answered
Karim Adiprasito
1.3%
N.C. Young answered
Bhargav Bhatt
0.9%
Magnus Rahbek Hansen answered
Adam Hoffman
0.6%
Scott Lawrence answered
Aleksandr Logunov
0.3%
Scott Lawrence answered
Alexander Efimov
0.2%
Scott Lawrence answered
Jacob Tsimerman
0.1%
Scott Lawrence answered
Xinwen Zhu
0.1%
Scott Lawrence answered
Song Sun
0.1%
Steven Liu answered
Zhiwei Yun
0.1%
Steven Liu answered
Vlad Vicol
0.1%
Scott Lawrence answered
Emmy Murphy
0.1%
Scott Lawrence answered
Jack Thorne
0.1%
CS answered
Tim Austin
0.0%
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xavi Ros | M$330 |
| 2 |  Akshay Hegde | M$193 |
| 3 |  Trung Pham | M$166 |
| 4 |  Philip Easo | M$153 |
| 5 |  Tao GUI | M$122 |
💸 Best bet
Xavi Ros made M$330!
Conflux answered6 months ago
James Maynard
Conflux bought M$406 months ago
Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though0
@alwaysrinse Keep in mind that the Fields medal is usually given to three or four people at a time. That means 40% is effectively over 100% with how this question resolves.
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@sbares Each winner resolves as 25% only? That can't be right. I thought 4 of the contracts just resolve to yes.
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@alwaysrinse With how free-response markets work on this site, the answers are mutually exclusive. The description for this question reads "...this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options", which I take to mean each of the n winning answers will resolve to 100/n %
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N.C. Young answered6 months ago
June Huh
N.C. Young answered6 months ago
Hugo Duminil-Copin
N.C. Young answered6 months ago
Maryna Viazovska
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Karim Adiprasito
N.C. Young answered6 months ago
Bhargav Bhatt
Magnus Rahbek Hansen answered5 months ago
Adam Hoffman
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Aleksandr Logunov
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Alexander Efimov
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Jacob Tsimerman
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Xinwen Zhu
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Song Sun
Steven Liu answered3 months ago
Zhiwei Yun
Steven Liu answered3 months ago
Vlad Vicol
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Emmy Murphy
Scott Lawrence answered5 months ago
Jack Thorne
CS answered3 months ago
Tim Austin
General Comments
See also the Polymarket version https://polymarket.com/market-group/who-will-win-the-2022-fields-medal
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Should this market be changed to close a bit earlier? My understanding is that DPM payouts aren't fixed, so once the result is announced, most of the current bettors' apparent gains will disappear.
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