resolved Jul 5

Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?

Resolved

MANY

As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market. Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm

June Huh

Chosen 25%

25%

James Maynard

Chosen 25%

27%

Maryna Viazovska

Chosen 25%

19%

Hugo Duminil-Copin

Chosen 25%

24%

Karim Adiprasito

1.3%

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Xavi Ros	Ṁ330
2	Akshay Hegde	Ṁ193
3	Trung Pham	Ṁ166
4	Philip Easo	Ṁ153
5	sbares	Ṁ125

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Nailed it.

Manifold Markets

See also the Polymarket version https://polymarket.com/market-group/who-will-win-the-2022-fields-medal

answered

James Maynard

@alwaysrinse With how free-response markets work on this site, the answers are mutually exclusive. The description for this question reads "...this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options", which I take to mean each of the n winning answers will resolve to 100/n %

answered

James Maynard

manifoldaccount

@sbares Each winner resolves as 25% only? That can't be right. I thought 4 of the contracts just resolve to yes.

answered

James Maynard

@alwaysrinse Keep in mind that the Fields medal is usually given to three or four people at a time. That means 40% is effectively over 100% with how this question resolves.

answered

James Maynard

manifoldaccount

@Angela 40% for Huh is reasonable, but Maynard should be at 80+%

answered

James Maynard

bought Ṁ5

someone just went all in on june huh, it looks like

answered

James Maynard

manifoldaccount

Seriously Maynard at 12%? It's a steal.

answered

James Maynard

manifoldaccount

@Conflux this is WAY TOO CHEAP

I have made the change.

Should this market be changed to close a bit earlier? My understanding is that DPM payouts aren't fixed, so once the result is announced, most of the current bettors' apparent gains will disappear.

answered

Maryna Viazovska

manifoldaccount

bought Ṁ10

@NcyRocks seems likely

bought Ṁ40 of James Maynard

Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though

bought Ṁ1,000 Hugo Duminil-Copin from 15% to 24%

bought Ṁ3 Alexander Efimov at 0.2%

bought Ṁ4 Aleksandr Logunov at 0.3%

bought Ṁ4 Adam Hoffman at 0.7%

bought Ṁ5 Bhargav Bhatt from 0.9% to 1.0%

bought Ṁ5 Karim Adiprasito at 1.5%

bought Ṁ30 Hugo Duminil-Copin from 14% to 15%

bought Ṁ50 Maryna Viazovska at 21%

Draliacshun Dishaird

bought Ṁ1 Maryna Viazovska at 21%

Draliacshun Dishaird

bought Ṁ1 June Huh at 29%

Draliacshun Dishaird

bought Ṁ1 James Maynard at 31%

bought Ṁ1,000 James Maynard from 22% to 31%

bought Ṁ1 Zhiwei Yun at 0.1%

bought Ṁ1 Vlad Vicol at 0.1%

bought Ṁ100 James Maynard from 21% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 Zhiwei Yun from 0.0% to 0.1%

bought Ṁ100 Maryna Viazovska from 23% to 24%

bought Ṁ100 Hugo Duminil-Copin from 16% to 17%

bought Ṁ90 James Maynard from 20% to 21%

bought Ṁ10 James Maynard at 20%

bought Ṁ10 Vlad Vicol from 0.0% to 0.1%

bought Ṁ8 Karim Adiprasito from 1.7% to 1.8%

bought Ṁ8 Karim Adiprasito from 1.6% to 1.7%

bought Ṁ3 Bhargav Bhatt from 1.1% to 1.2%

bought Ṁ1 Tim Austin at 0.0%

bought Ṁ5 Adam Hoffman from 0.7% to 0.8%

bought Ṁ5 Bhargav Bhatt from 1.0% to 1.1%

sold Ṁ22 Maryna Viazovska at 24%

sold Ṁ38 Maryna Viazovska from 25% to 24%

sold Ṁ254 Maryna Viazovska from 27% to 25%

sold Ṁ253 Maryna Viazovska from 29% to 27%

Michael Wheatley

bought Ṁ109 Hugo Duminil-Copin from 14% to 15%

Riccardo Brasca

bought Ṁ100 Hugo Duminil-Copin from 12% to 14%

Riccardo Brasca

bought Ṁ300 Maryna Viazovska from 27% to 30%

Riccardo Brasca

bought Ṁ300 James Maynard from 17% to 20%

Riccardo Brasca

bought Ṁ200 June Huh from 34% to 36%

Michael Wheatley

bought Ṁ59 Hugo Duminil-Copin from 13% to 14%

Michael Wheatley

bought Ṁ37 James Maynard at 17%

bought Ṁ1,000 Maryna Viazovska from 19% to 30%

bought Ṁ10 Karim Adiprasito from 1.8% to 1.9%

bought Ṁ10 Bhargav Bhatt from 1.2% to 1.3%

bought Ṁ10 Adam Hoffman from 0.8% to 0.9%

bought Ṁ5 Aleksandr Logunov from 0.3% to 0.4%

bought Ṁ2 Alexander Efimov at 0.2%

bought Ṁ2 Jacob Tsimerman at 0.2%

bought Ṁ2 Xinwen Zhu at 0.2%

bought Ṁ2 Song Sun at 0.2%

bought Ṁ2 Emmy Murphy at 0.2%

bought Ṁ2 Jack Thorne at 0.2%

bought Ṁ5 Karim Adiprasito from 1.7% to 1.8%