Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?
Jul 7
M$2,864 bet
As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market. Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options.
Conflux
Conflux answered
James Maynard
24%
MagnusRahbekHansen
Adam Hoffman
24%
ScottLawrence
Karim Adiprasito
20%
NcyRocks
N.C. Young answered
Maryna Viazovska
10%
NcyRocks
N.C. Young answered
June Huh
7%
NcyRocks
N.C. Young answered
Bhargav Bhatt
5%
NcyRocks
N.C. Young answered
Hugo Duminil-Copin
3%
ScottLawrence
Jacob Tsimerman
3%
ScottLawrence
Song Sun
0.7%
ScottLawrence
Xinwen Zhu
0.4%
ScottLawrence
Aleksandr Logunov
0.4%
ScottLawrence
Emmy Murphy
0.3%
ScottLawrence
Jack Thorne
0.3%
ScottLawrence
Alexander Efimov
0.3%
Add your answer
Conflux
James Maynard
24%
Conflux

Conflux bought M$402 months ago

Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though
MagnusRahbekHansen
Adam Hoffman
24%
ScottLawrence
Karim Adiprasito
20%
NcyRocks
Maryna Viazovska
10%
alwaysrinse

alwaysrinse bought M$104 days ago

@NcyRocks seems likely
NcyRocks
June Huh
7%
NcyRocks
Bhargav Bhatt
5%
NcyRocks
Hugo Duminil-Copin
3%
ScottLawrence
Jacob Tsimerman
3%
ScottLawrence
Song Sun
0.7%
ScottLawrence
Xinwen Zhu
0.4%
ScottLawrence
Aleksandr Logunov
0.4%
ScottLawrence
Emmy Murphy
0.3%
ScottLawrence
Jack Thorne
0.3%
ScottLawrence
Alexander Efimov
0.3%
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