Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?

630

Ṁ20K

resolved Jul 5

ALL

25%25%

June Huh

25%27%

James Maynard

25%19%

Maryna Viazovska

25%24%

Hugo Duminil-Copin

0.9%

Bhargav Bhatt

0.2%

Alexander Efimov

0.1%

Song Sun

0.3%

Aleksandr Logunov

0.1%

Xinwen Zhu

0.1%

Jacob Tsimerman

0.1%

Jack Thorne

0.1%

Emmy Murphy

1.3%

Karim Adiprasito

0.6%

Adam Hoffman

0.0%

Tim Austin

0.1%

Vlad Vicol

0.1%

Zhiwei Yun

As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market. Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm

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Nailed it.

See also the Polymarket version https://polymarket.com/market-group/who-will-win-the-2022-fields-medal

answered

James Maynard

@alwaysrinse With how free-response markets work on this site, the answers are mutually exclusive. The description for this question reads "...this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options", which I take to mean each of the n winning answers will resolve to 100/n %

answered

James Maynard

@sbares Each winner resolves as 25% only? That can't be right. I thought 4 of the contracts just resolve to yes.

answered

James Maynard

@alwaysrinse Keep in mind that the Fields medal is usually given to three or four people at a time. That means 40% is effectively over 100% with how this question resolves.

answered

James Maynard

@Angela 40% for Huh is reasonable, but Maynard should be at 80+%

answered

James Maynard

bought Ṁ5

someone just went all in on june huh, it looks like

answered

James Maynard

Seriously Maynard at 12%? It's a steal.

answered

James Maynard

@Conflux this is WAY TOO CHEAP

I have made the change.

Should this market be changed to close a bit earlier? My understanding is that DPM payouts aren't fixed, so once the result is announced, most of the current bettors' apparent gains will disappear.