ChanBae avatar
Chan Bae
resolved Jul 5
Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?
Resolved
MANY
As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market. Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm
June Huh
Chosen 25%
25%
James Maynard
Chosen 25%
27%
Maryna Viazovska
Chosen 25%
19%
Hugo Duminil-Copin
Chosen 25%
24%
ScottLawrence avatarKarim Adiprasito
1.3%

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ChanBae avatar
Nailed it.
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
sbares avatar
@alwaysrinse With how free-response markets work on this site, the answers are mutually exclusive. The description for this question reads "...this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options", which I take to mean each of the n winning answers will resolve to 100/n %
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
manifoldaccount avatar
@sbares Each winner resolves as 25% only? That can't be right. I thought 4 of the contracts just resolve to yes.
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
sbares avatar
@alwaysrinse Keep in mind that the Fields medal is usually given to three or four people at a time. That means 40% is effectively over 100% with how this question resolves.
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
manifoldaccount avatar
@Angela 40% for Huh is reasonable, but Maynard should be at 80+%
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
1 avatar
1
bought Ṁ5
someone just went all in on june huh, it looks like
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
manifoldaccount avatar
Seriously Maynard at 12%? It's a steal.
Conflux
answered
James Maynard
manifoldaccount avatar
@Conflux this is WAY TOO CHEAP
ChanBae avatar
I have made the change.
ScottLawrence avatar
Should this market be changed to close a bit earlier? My understanding is that DPM payouts aren't fixed, so once the result is announced, most of the current bettors' apparent gains will disappear.
N.C. Young
answered
Maryna Viazovska
manifoldaccount avatar
manifoldaccount
bought Ṁ10
@NcyRocks seems likely
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ40 of James Maynard
Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though