Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?
43
2.7kṀ20k
resolved Jul 5
25%25%
June Huh
25%27%
James Maynard
25%24%
Hugo Duminil-Copin
25%19%
Maryna Viazovska
0.0%Other
0.9%
Bhargav Bhatt
0.2%
Alexander Efimov
0.1%
Song Sun
0.3%
Aleksandr Logunov
0.1%
Xinwen Zhu
0.1%
Jacob Tsimerman
0.1%
Jack Thorne
0.1%
Emmy Murphy
1.3%
Karim Adiprasito
0.6%
Adam Hoffman
0.0%
Tim Austin
0.1%
Vlad Vicol
0.1%
Zhiwei Yun
As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market. Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm
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Nailed it.
See also the Polymarket version https://polymarket.com/market-group/who-will-win-the-2022-fields-medal
@alwaysrinse With how free-response markets work on this site, the answers are mutually exclusive. The description for this question reads "...this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options", which I take to mean each of the n winning answers will resolve to 100/n %
@sbares Each winner resolves as 25% only? That can't be right. I thought 4 of the contracts just resolve to yes.
@alwaysrinse Keep in mind that the Fields medal is usually given to three or four people at a time. That means 40% is effectively over 100% with how this question resolves.
@Angela 40% for Huh is reasonable, but Maynard should be at 80+%
someone just went all in on june huh, it looks like
Seriously Maynard at 12%? It's a steal.
@Conflux this is WAY TOO CHEAP
I have made the change.
Should this market be changed to close a bit earlier? My understanding is that DPM payouts aren't fixed, so once the result is announced, most of the current bettors' apparent gains will disappear.
@NcyRocks seems likely
Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though

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