Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?
As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market.
Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options.
Conflux answered
James Maynard
24%
Magnus Rahbek Hansen answered
Adam Hoffman
24%
Scott Lawrence answered
Karim Adiprasito
20%
N.C. Young answered
Maryna Viazovska
10%
N.C. Young answered
June Huh
7%
N.C. Young answered
Bhargav Bhatt
5%
N.C. Young answered
Hugo Duminil-Copin
3%
Scott Lawrence answered
Jacob Tsimerman
3%
Scott Lawrence answered
Song Sun
0.7%
Scott Lawrence answered
Xinwen Zhu
0.4%
Scott Lawrence answered
Aleksandr Logunov
0.4%
Scott Lawrence answered
Emmy Murphy
0.3%
Scott Lawrence answered
Jack Thorne
0.3%
Scott Lawrence answered
Alexander Efimov
0.3%
Add your answer
Conflux answered2 months ago
James Maynard
24%
Conflux bought M$402 months ago
Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though
Magnus Rahbek Hansen answered23 days ago
Adam Hoffman
24%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Karim Adiprasito
20%
N.C. Young answered2 months ago
Maryna Viazovska
10%
alwaysrinse bought M$104 days ago
@NcyRocks seems likely
N.C. Young answered2 months ago
June Huh
7%
N.C. Young answered2 months ago
Bhargav Bhatt
5%
N.C. Young answered2 months ago
Hugo Duminil-Copin
3%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Jacob Tsimerman
3%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Song Sun
0.7%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Xinwen Zhu
0.4%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Aleksandr Logunov
0.4%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Emmy Murphy
0.3%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Jack Thorne
0.3%
Scott Lawrence answereda month ago
Alexander Efimov
0.3%
General Comments