ChanBae avatar
resolved 
Jul 5
Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?
Resolved
MANY
As is announced at the Fields Medal ceremony on July 6th. If the award is refused by a winner, they will still be considered to have won for the purposes of resolving this market. Apr 8, 12:59pm: Unlike Nobel laureates, who might share a prize in different proportions (e.g. if there are three, the awarding committee may opt to award half the award money to one recipient and a quarter to each of the two others), Fields medalists have been treated equally in the past. I do not anticipate this changing, but even if it does, this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options. Close date updated to 2022-07-04 11:59 pm
June Huh
Chosen 25%
25%
James Maynard
Chosen 25%
27%
Maryna Viazovska
Chosen 25%
19%
Hugo Duminil-Copin
Chosen 25%
24%
ScottLawrence avatar
Karim Adiprasito
1.3%
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young answered
Bhargav Bhatt
0.9%
MagnusRahbekHansen avatar
Adam Hoffman
0.6%
ScottLawrence avatar
Aleksandr Logunov
0.3%
ScottLawrence avatar
Alexander Efimov
0.2%
ScottLawrence avatar
Jacob Tsimerman
0.1%
ScottLawrence avatar
Xinwen Zhu
0.1%
ScottLawrence avatar
Song Sun
0.1%
StevenLiu avatar
Steven Liu answered
Zhiwei Yun
0.1%
StevenLiu avatar
Steven Liu answered
Vlad Vicol
0.1%
ScottLawrence avatar
Emmy Murphy
0.1%
ScottLawrence avatar
Jack Thorne
0.1%
CS avatar
CS answered
Tim Austin
0.0%

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
Unknown user avatar
Xavi Ros
M$330
2
Unknown user avatar
Akshay Hegde
M$193
3
Unknown user avatar
Trung Pham
M$166
4
Unknown user avatar
Philip Easo
M$153
5
Unknown user avatar
Tao GUI
M$122

💸 Best bet

XaviRos avatar
Xavi Ros bought M$1,000 of Maryna Viazovska from 5% to 36%3 months ago
Xavi Ros made M$330!
Conflux avatar
James Maynard
Conflux avatar
Did a quick search and people seem to think he has a good shot. Someone else should do more research though
0
alwaysrinse avatar
@Conflux this is WAY TOO CHEAP
0
alwaysrinse avatar
Seriously Maynard at 12%? It's a steal.
0
1 avatar
1 bought M$53 months ago
someone just went all in on june huh, it looks like
0
alwaysrinse avatar
@Angela 40% for Huh is reasonable, but Maynard should be at 80+%
0
sbares avatar
@alwaysrinse Keep in mind that the Fields medal is usually given to three or four people at a time. That means 40% is effectively over 100% with how this question resolves.
0
alwaysrinse avatar
@sbares Each winner resolves as 25% only? That can't be right. I thought 4 of the contracts just resolve to yes.
0
sbares avatar
@alwaysrinse With how free-response markets work on this site, the answers are mutually exclusive. The description for this question reads "...this market will resolve to distribute the pool equally among the winning options", which I take to mean each of the n winning answers will resolve to 100/n %
0
NcyRocks avatar
June Huh
NcyRocks avatar
Hugo Duminil-Copin
NcyRocks avatar
Maryna Viazovska
alwaysrinse avatar
@NcyRocks seems likely
0
ScottLawrence avatar
Karim Adiprasito
NcyRocks avatar
Bhargav Bhatt
MagnusRahbekHansen avatar
Adam Hoffman
ScottLawrence avatar
Aleksandr Logunov
ScottLawrence avatar
Alexander Efimov
ScottLawrence avatar
Jacob Tsimerman
ScottLawrence avatar
Xinwen Zhu
ScottLawrence avatar
Song Sun
StevenLiu avatar
Zhiwei Yun
StevenLiu avatar
Vlad Vicol
ScottLawrence avatar
Emmy Murphy
ScottLawrence avatar
Jack Thorne
CS avatar
Tim Austin
General Comments
ChanBae avatar
Nailed it.
0
ChanBae avatar
I have made the change.
0
ScottLawrence avatar
Should this market be changed to close a bit earlier? My understanding is that DPM payouts aren't fixed, so once the result is announced, most of the current bettors' apparent gains will disappear.
0