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️ PoliticsπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 2024 US Presidential ElectionπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US PoliticsTrumpJoe Biden
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Nov 6
87%
Donald Trump makes a post on Truth Social mentioning or alluding to election fraud (includes reTruths)
82%
Donald Trump wears a red hat
78%
At least one state does not vote as the polls suggested it would
70%
John King (CNN) says the words "This election is too close to call" at least once
56%
The result of the election will not be called on the night
52%
Donald Trump makes a post on X/Twitter mentioning or alluding to election fraud (includes retweets)
44%
Donald Trump wears a red hat that doesn't say "Make America Great Again"
42%
A winner is announced before 11:59pm PT
39%
The loser gives a concession speech
37%
The results of Texas are at any point too close to call
36%
The concession speech of the loser mentions "Inflation"
31%
Reports of riots in more than 5 major US cities
14%
The concession speech of the loser mentions "Palestine"
11%
Trump gives a concession speech if he loses
6%
The AP retracts a call they've made on a state
1.4%
Biden gives a concession speech if he loses

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John King (CNN) says the words "This election is too close to call" at least once
bought αΉ€10 John King (CNN) says... NO

@HarryHayfield not likely he will say this exactly

Not willing to spend the Mana to add, but I'd be interested in seeing

"Any candidate makes an appearance in a state beginning with 'New'"

Reports of riots in more than 5 major US cities

@CertaintyOfVictory how does "riot" resolve versus, say, "demonstration"?

If demonstrations are reported in mainstream media outlets it resolves no, if riots are reported in mainstream media outlets it resolves yes.

The results of Texas are at any point too close to call

I don’t know about other agencies, but AP will only declare a race too close to call if all normal ballots have been tabulated.

At least one state does not vote as the polls suggested it would

@HarryHayfield this really needs a more specific definition

I second that.

@HarryHayfield Please specify.

My guess is it’s whether some poll aggregate shows Harris in the lead on election day, but Trump wins the state, or vice versa.

Donald Trump makes a post on Truth Social mentioning or alluding to election fraud (includes reTruths)

@jBosc can the market creator/mods fix the typo 😭😭 ('posts')

Done!

@CertaintyOfVictory what counts as "Election Night"?

"Donald Trump wears a red hat" Is there a particular time frame for this? What time zone?
The concession speech of the loser mentions "Inflation": Does this not count if the concession speech is not in the time frame given?

Election Night is 6 PM to 2 AM as a rule of thumb.

The results of Texas are at any point too close to call
bought αΉ€50 The results of Texas... YES

Am I misinterpreting something about this option? "At any point" seems to mean, "They don't call it immediately when the first results come in," which should be nearly 100%.

Already answered.

The concession speech of the loser mentions "Inflation"
bought αΉ€10 The concession speec... NO

If there's no concession speech, does this resolve NO or N/A?

No.

Biden gives a concession speech if he loses
bought αΉ€150 Biden gives a conces... NO

Would be pretty weird for someone who's not running to make a concession speech

What does "too close to call" mean? Does it just mean "not called at poll closing"?

Some networks make no distinction between "too early to call" and "too close to call". Also, different networks may disagree.

@cantankerous If you find a major network calling Texas at any point during election night too close to call this resolves YES.

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