🗣️Who will run for president in the 2028 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
67
Ṁ17k
2028
86%
JD Vance
82%
Jill Stein
80%
Vermin Supreme
76%
Josh Shapiro
76%
Marianne Williamson
75%
Gavin Newsom
70%
Pete Buttigieg
58%
JB Pritzker
58%
Tulsi Gabbard
53%
Josh Hawley
52%
Gretchen Whitmer
50%
Ron DeSantis
49%
Glenn Youngkin
48%
John Fetterman
47%
Andy Beshear
43%
Corey Booker
41%
Cornel West
41%
Ted Cruz
40%
Nikki Haley
39%
Greg Abbott

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES

@traders parallel markets can be found here:

8%? Can anyone explain why it is so low?

@vibhav once someone is the nominee, they're rarely given a second chance if they lose. Trump is the exception here, but see Clinton, Romney, McCain, Kerry, Gore, Bush, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, etc. Nixon was the last exception, but there's a strong prior in both parties for not bringing back a losing candidate.

@robm Is the chance that low that she won't even attempt running?

@vibhav I think so. Especially since she ran in 2020 as well.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Tulsi's running. RFK practically endorsed her a couple days ago, and now she joined the Republican party.

bought Ṁ250 NO

He is not eligible to run for president.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@PlasmaBallin Ted Cruz ran in 2016

bought Ṁ50 NO

@PlasmaBallin he is not currently eligible

@jks Ted Cruz was a natural-born citizen. Elon Musk is not.

@jim Unlikely that the requirement will change in just four years though

@PlasmaBallin he'll become president if he has to

@PlasmaBallin Ah, thank you. I was missing the distinction between "natural-born" and "naturalized".

@PlasmaBallin Cenk Uygur "ran" in 2024 despite being born in Turkey and is at 34% here.

Not sure the resolution criteria

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Good point, I guess you technically don't have to eligible to become president in order to run

bought Ṁ50 YES

jd vance bump

reposted

upgraded to basic

bought Ṁ10 NO

Does an exploratory committee count as running? Or an official announcement?

@nikki i think it would need to be more than exploratory , an announcement seems good

reposted

haley's out! bumping

reposted

vermin has one more in him i believe!

I don’t think she’s a natural born US citizen

@mattyb hm should i count cenk ... ive been thinking about this

@strutheo it’s your market and your answer :)

@mattyb i think i will still count her and cenk because some states dont test for this until after the primary, and eligibility vs being able to accept the office are two different things. Technically it is still possible for them to get on a few ballots and even get some votes, judging by cenk so far.

also i am inclined to accept campaigns that are known to be doomed from the start , as in Vermin Supreme's, as long as they put some effort in (by my judgement)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules