Resolves YES if the program is discontinued for lack of participation, technical problems, or financial unsustainability. In case of discontinuation for other reasons, I will hear arguments about how the question should resolve.
If the core terms of the program are substantially changed for similar reasons, I will hear arguments about whether to resolve YES, NO, or N/A depending on the circumstances.
In close cases involving judgment, I might use a poll to resolve.
If the program continues in largely similar form through December 31, 2024, I will resolve according to the results of a poll of Manifold users.
For clarity, success or failure is intended to be determined by results, not by whether starting the program was a "good bet" at the time.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - Will resolve this market to YES in 48 hours absent strong objections. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,164 | |
| 2 | Ṁ958 | |
| 3 | Ṁ741 | |
| 4 | Ṁ642 | |
| 5 | Ṁ92 |