Resolves according to data provided by Our World in Data, if available. Otherwise, resolves according to the average of the 3 top sources by SEO on the leading search engine at close.
Edit 11/14/22: Refers to life expectancy at birth.
The latest life expectancy at birth stat from Our World in Data (sourced from OECD) was 78.8 years. We would need an additional 6.2 years for a positive resolution. It took from 1975 to 2015 to achieve the last 6.2 years - 40 years.
At the same rate of increase, the market would resolve no, only achieving the next 6.2 years in 2062. But instead we see the growth rate of life expectancy decreasing in the last 10 or so years.
It is possible that new technology will dramatically increase human lifespans (and I really hope so!) but I think base rates implies that this market is highly overvalued at 90%.
Please LMK if anyone disagrees with this analysis!
https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy
