Which Political Nates are using Manifold anonymously? [Unlinked Multiple Choice - Expires 2025] | Manifold

Which Political Nates are using Manifold anonymously? [Unlinked Multiple Choice - Expires 2025]

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26

Ṁ1263

Jan 1

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1W

1M

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21%

Nathaniel Rakich - Senior Editor at 538

20%

Nate Cohn - Chief Political Analyst at the New York Times

17%

Nate Silver - Founder of 538

We know these Nates are all quite online, surely they would see the value of Manifold for informing their political coverage! And as a former election-twitter junkie, I can assure you that the election-twitter-to-manifold pipeline has already completed construction and flow is increasing constantly.

We can only conclude that there may already be Nates among us, browsing the site anonymously. Will we discover the truth of this by the end of 2024?

A Nate will resolve yes if that Nate is proven to my satisfaction(95% confidence interval) to have an account on Manifold that does not use their real name. I do not need to know what that account is, just that it exists. I will accept twitter or discord DMs with private evidence or testimony if anyone wants to submit any.

All undiscovered Nates will be resolved NO at market close. Please let me know if there are any other Nates I should add.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#118th Congress

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DanboughtṀ250 NO

He just said at Manifest he hasn’t created an account

bought Ṁ100 YES

hmmmm

Nate Siliver cites a Manifold market in a recent post: https://www.natesilver.net/p/160-million-americans-are-eligible

@SemioticRivalry I can't believe you didn't say hi to me at Manifest

@Joshua believe it or not, not the first time i've been accused of this

(that is, being nate silver)

You're saying that, being Nate Silver, this was not the first time someone accused you of not saying hi to them at Manifest?

@jskf precisely

@Joshua resolves YES

@SemioticRivalry did you tweet about the TikTok market just to pull in dumb money that you could anonymously bet against

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