We know these Nates are all quite online, surely they would see the value of Manifold for informing their political coverage! And as a former election-twitter junkie, I can assure you that the election-twitter-to-manifold pipeline has already completed construction and flow is increasing constantly.
We can only conclude that there may already be Nates among us, browsing the site anonymously. Will we discover the truth of this by the end of 2024?
A Nate will resolve yes if that Nate is proven to my satisfaction(95% confidence interval) to have an account on Manifold that does not use their real name. I do not need to know what that account is, just that it exists. I will accept twitter or discord DMs with private evidence or testimony if anyone wants to submit any.
All undiscovered Nates will be resolved NO at market close. Please let me know if there are any other Nates I should add.
Related questions
Nate Siliver cites a Manifold market in a recent post: https://www.natesilver.net/p/160-million-americans-are-eligible
@Joshua believe it or not, not the first time i've been accused of this
@SemioticRivalry did you tweet about the TikTok market just to pull in dumb money that you could anonymously bet against
