2
Will I misresolve a market by end of 2023?
27
closes 2024
16%
chance

Resolves positively if 5 or more users claim, in good faith, that I have mis-resolved a market. If the good faith of the accusations is in question, I will defer to @IsaacKing on whether they are accusing in good faith or not.

Update 2023-04-28: As stated in comments, I will not buy yes shares.

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LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanks

@CarsonGale Do you promise not to buy YES?

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale
NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen

@LukeHanks I believe him, he seems trustworthyish.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

I won't bet here to avoid conflicts of interest.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@IsaacKing (But I think this should be lower.)

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Will I misresolve a market in 2023?5%
Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?48%
Will anyone else resolve one of my other markets against my intentions by the end of 2023?30%
Will any properly-resolved markets be improperly corrected in 2023?15%
Will resolve-to-market markets be banned in 2023?10%
Will I request any of my markets to be un-resolved or re-resolved in 2023?35%
Will this market resolve?99%
Will I accidently misresolve another market this year?37%
How many more markets will I misresolve this year?3.3
Will @Elspeth incorrectly resolve a market by the end of June 2023?38%
Will the market "This market should resolve to YES in 2024, but I will not personally resolve it" resolve to YES?95%
Will any resolve-to-quiescence-with-high-probability markets fail catastrophically by EO202362%
Will Dr. P resolve any market incorrectly before 2024?3%
Will I resolve a market controversially this year?59%
By the end of 2023, will I believe that closing a market 1 minute before the end of that interval is the best end date?15%
How will I resolve this market?53%
Will @johnleoks resolve any more markets incorrectly by the end of 2023?23%
By the end of 2023, will any correctly-resolved market have an "incorrectly resolved" warning displayed next to it?46%
What markets were intentionally and fraudulently misresolved in 2023?
Will I resolve a market N/A this year?61%