@EmilyFuhriman and I have been partnered for almost 5 years now, and we might be married. See >>> /EmilyFuhriman/are-carson-and-i-married

In the event that we are already married OR get married, will we get a divorce by 2040?

For context, Emily is previously divorced and is famously pro-divorce. Similarly, I think credible intent to divorce is an important tool in limiting relationship monopolies that incentivize partners to put the minimum amount of work into your relationship that is required to keep your partner from breaking up with you (i.e., divorcing). By raising the threshold for what would credibly constitute a relationship-ending status, a partnership increases its requirements for how well each party needs to treat each other to maintain the partnership.

So we are both pro-divorce...but we are also super duper in love with each other and have been for the last 5 years. And Manifold generally believes in us in the short term: /CarsonGale/will-emily-and-i-still-be-in-a-rela

We just surveyed each other about the maximum $ amount we would be willing to pay a secret, magic genie to keep dating each other; I was willing to pay ~$15k a year and Emily was willing to pay ~$5k (her rationale --> it would be hard to find a good enough alternative, but not THAT hard). Hopefully, this information is helpful to potential traders.

This market resolves "n/a" if Emily and I turn out to never have been married by 2040, and resolves NO if we do not get a divorce between now and 2040.

Update: Emily has stipulated that I add to the market description that we will NOT get divorced for the explicit purpose of market manipulation. i.e., we will act in good faith.